A report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK-Report No. 116), published today, points at constructional flaws in the current global system for protection of the climate. The authors analyse the interests of the different groups of countries and delineate how international climate policy could be modified to keep global warming to two degrees Celsius, as called for in the Copenhagen Accord.

“For the global climate negotiations to gain new momentum, we need an effective and just strategy,” says Lutz Wicke. This strategy has to equally take into account the diverging negotiation positions of countries around the globe. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber and Daniel Klingenfeld of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Wicke of ESCP Europe have now released the “2°max Climate Strategy”. Building on the budget approach, proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change in 2009, the authors describe how to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius, as stated as an aim in the Copenhagen Accord.

At first, constructional flaws of the Kyoto protocol had to be resolved, the report states. Voluntary self-commitments by countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases are not sufficient to achieve ambitious climate targets. “Bazaar-type bargaining – where everybody offers as little as they can – has led climate negotiations to a dead end,” says Schellnhuber. To have a good chance to respect the two degrees limit, global emissions have to decline before 2020 and be halved in comparison to 1990 levels by 2050. “However, the current national emissions-reduction pledges accompanying the Copenhagen Accord imply a global mean temperature increase of more than three degrees Celsius this century,” Schellnhuber notes (see related press release: Copenhagen Accord misses 2° C climate target)

The authors call for a global limit on emissions that is consistent with the two degrees Celsius climate target. This way, the interests of countries like the USA and China that do not want to accept national emissions limits are taken into account. The limit is defined on the global, not the national level and implemented through a “peak and trade” emissions trading scheme.

The first global emissions limit, that is not to be too strict, the “peak”, could be 35 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2015. An equal per capita distribution of the emission certificates among 6.9 billion humans in the base-year 2010 would result in about five tonnes of CO2 per person. In order to respect the two degrees climate target, this amount has to be reduced gradually in the following years.

“An allocation principle which allows ‘one human-one emissions right’ enables fair burden-sharing and active participation of developing countries,” says Wicke. It would be an incentive for low carbon development in these countries which could profit substantially from the sale of unused emissions allowances. Furthermore, a global price for CO2 would be a globally effective incentive for low carbon investments and consumption, for saving energy, and increasing energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy.

PIK-Report No. 116 (German): Nach Kopenhagen: Neue Strategie zur Realisierung des 2°max Klimazieles. L. Wicke, H. J. Schellnhuber, D. Klingenfeld (April 2010)

Summary Report No. 116

Complete Document

.........................................................................................................

Summary Report No. 116

For Germany and the European Union to succeed with their global climate protection objectives, the development and implementation of a more effective and more just climate protection strategy is required. A mere continuation of the current international climate regime with its lack of coherence and effectiveness is associated with important long-term risks for nature and humankind. In a best-case scenario, emissions reduction efforts in line with the non-binding pledges made during the Copenhagen negotiations would still lead to an average global mean temperature increase of around 3.5°C. This in turn would be well beyond the globally accepted 2°C guard rail to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

What is required therefore is a new approach that overcomes the limitations of the existing framework while taking into account the diverging negotiation positions of countries around the globe. The 2°max climate strategy proposed in this paper is based on elements of the WBGU budget approach (2009; allocation of remaining carbon budgets to nation states according to fundamental principles of justice) and contains a number of specific mechanisms for implementation. The core elements are:

• A fixed, global emissions limit compatible with the 2°C guard rail, beginning with a global emissions peak, stabilization phase and ensuing stepwise reduction
• Allocation principle “one human-one emissions right”: initial equal per capita allocation to enable active participation of developing countries with incentives for low carbon development and financial benefits through the sale of unused emissions allowances
• A global price for carbon dioxide (CO2) by means of a global “peak and trade” emissions trading scheme targeting upstream carbon sources; as a result, a level playing field for CO2 emissions is established worldwide with widespread incentives for low carbon development
• Integrated support and redistribution mechanisms to advance sustainable development and elimination of poverty while at the same time avoiding an over-burdening of industrialized countries and the world economy as a whole
• Enhancing chances for acceptance of all (groups of) states by taking their economic and socio-cultural interests into account

The failure of the Copenhagen negotiations can also be an opportunity to refocus efforts on the development of a global climate protection system that can deliver. Convincing new concepts are needed to reinvigorate the international negotiation process.

Complete Document (263 KB)

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 2010