After the Tohoku Earthquake,Tsunami and Fukushima Nuclear Crisis.

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami wavesup to 38 meters high struck the northeastern part of Japan, causingwidespread devastation. As of April 11, a month after the disasters, thedeath toll exceeded 13,000, with 14,600 still missing and about 150,000people still in shelters. It will take a lot of time, money, and effortto restore and reconstruct the affected areas.

The March 11 earthquake and tsunami also caused serious damage at theFukushima Daiichi nuclear power station operated by the Tokyo ElectricPower Co. (TEPCO). These multiple disasters have damaged the ability tosupply electricity in eastern Japan. In this article, we would like toinform you of what happened to Japan's electricity supply and demand,the current circumstances, future outlook, and what measures are beingconsidered to cope with the situation.

What Happened to Electricity Supply and Demand in Japan after theDisaster?

The devastating earthquake and tsunami cut the power supply from many thermal and nuclear power plants located along the Pacific coast innortheastern Japan, and caused heavy damage to their facilities. In TEPCO's power system, eight power plants (generating a total 21.96 million kilowatts), including the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear powerstation (4.70 million kilowatts) and the Fukushima Daini nuclear powerstation (4.40 million kilowatts), stopped operating, and another fiveplants (generating a total 5.64 million kilowatts) stopped in the system of the Tohoku Electric Power Co. Since there were still heating energy needs in mid-March when the earthquake struck, electricity supply suddenly fell short of demand.

What Is Being Done?

In response to the power shortage, two major actions have been taken onthe supply side. One is to deliver electricity from other areas usingthe power lines interconnected across the boundaries of utility company service areas. Up to 600,000 kilowatts of electricity are being provided from Hokkaido, Japan's northernmost island. There are many power plantsin western Japan, but the amount of electricity that can be sent to eastern Japan is limited to one million kilowatts because of adifference in electrical frequencies between regions. When Japan first introduced power generation systems in the Meiji period, a 50-hertzgenerator was imported from Germany to the Kanto region in eastern Japan, and a 60-hertz generator was brought from the United States to theKansai region in western Japan. With these two different frequenciesstill being used today, the amount of electricity transmitted across the border is determined by the capacity of frequency conversion facilities.

The other effort on the supply side is to get help from other companies. Some hydroelectric power stations, located near the boundary between 50 and 60 hertz regions, are now generating electricity at 50 hertz,instead of their normal frequency of 60 hertz. Extra generating capacities, such as at privately owned power facilities, are beingprocured from other utility companies. Many user companies are alsoproviding support by independently generating their own power. Inparticular, Mori Building Co., an urban development firm, has a powergenerator fueled by city gas at its Roppongi Hills high-rise buildingcomplex in central Tokyo, and is providing up to 4,000 kilowatts ofelectricity to TEPCO. To avoid abrupt, large-scale power outages, TEPCO introduced rolling blackouts, or planned power outages, as a means to control electricityuse on the demand side. The company divided its service area into fivesections according to the locations of distribution substations, andstarted rotating power outages lasting a few hours in each section,while forecasting the balance between electricity supply and demand forthe day.

At first, there was a great deal of confusion, as well as tragedy. A manwas killed in a crash at an intersection with darkened traffic signals. A woman, who was hit by a truck at another dark intersection and sent toa hospital, became seriously ill because a power outage prevented doctors from doing a computed tomography (CT) scan. Various otherproblems occurred during the blackouts. For example, loss of powerrisked home medical care, and pumps stopped during blackouts caused water failure in condominiums.

These planned power outages also prevented factories, shops, and trainservices from operating normally. A three-hour power outage each day maymean no operation for a full day when the start-up time of machines infactories is taken into consideration.  Some entire train lines werecancelled and the frequency of services were cut, resulting in no trainservice for a few days in some areas. (Because our JFS office, which islocated a 30-minute ride from central Tokyo, and my home faced the samesituations, I had to cancel all my scheduled appointments to go out, andJFS's employee who usually commutes by train worked at home.) Thetransportation network in the metropolitan area is so extensivelyinterconnected that people everywhere immediately got stuck and planswere disrupted when the trains stopped running.

The chaos was compounded by confusing grouping of power outages due toinconsistencies between the service areas of distributing substationsand administrative districts. Inadequate and delayed informationprovided by TEPCO also made the situation worse. Because planned poweroutages are conducted based on the prediction of demand and supply, theycould be avoided if everyone saves electricity. But people who preparedfor a power outage according to the previously-announced time weredisrupted again in cases where the power stoppage was cancelled. Cynicscomplained that the supposed "planned" outages were poorly planned.

As an aside, many people retweeted humorous tweets at the time like thisone: "Reaction to planned power outage in different countries. France:Lovers woo each other. Germany: We have solar cells. Japan: Poweroutages were avoided by people's efforts to save power, and then peoplegot furious when the outages were cancelled." (This comment preciselyportrays the character of the Japanese people.)

To handle the situation more precisely, TEPCO improved the system bysubdividing further, to create 25 groups instead of the original five.Planned power outages, which had lasted since the earthquake, ended onApril 8 when TEPCO announced that it could discontinue the rollingoutages, thanks to the recovery of a demand-and-supply balance. However,many people think the reprieve is only temporary because heating demanddecreased with the arrival of spring.

State of the Demand-and-Supply Balance this Summer

The demand-and-supply situation coming this summer is predicted to be46.5 million kilowatts of electric supply with 55 million kilowatts ofassumed maximum demand, resulting in a huge electricity shortfall of upto 10 million kilowatts at peak times. If compared with the 59.99million kilowatts of the maximum electricity supply during last year'sextremely hot summer, the power supply could be short by 15 millionkilowatts.

It takes a few years to increase electricity supply on a large scale bymodifying frequency conversion stations and constructing new powergeneration facilities, including thermal power plants, meaning it is toolate for us to get through this summer with enough supply. Even if weaccelerate the introduction of solar, wind, and other renewable energies,they cannot provide extensive electricity on a short-term basis, becausethey account for only 3 percent of the country's current power needs.(Needless to say, I would hope that today's short-term emergencyresponse should support, not hamper, the formulation of mid- andlong-term measures to combat global warming and the building of asustainable society.)

In case of short supplies, we have no choice but to control demand. Weneed to cut our power needs by 20 to 25 percent at peak time. How can wecontrol enough of our needs to prevent more planned power outages?Measures and projects initiated by the government, municipalities,businesses, and citizens are expected to do the job.

Japan experienced huge social confusion during the 1972 oil shock, whenthe gap between energy supply and demand widened. While it was a gap ofthe total amount during the oil shock, now it is a gap at peak time; themain focus lies on how to control on-peak energy demand.

Japanese electricity users can be categorized into three groups, each ofwhich needs its own control measures. One is the commercial-scale users,whose currently effective contract demand is more than 500 kilowatts.There are 15,000 of them in Japan, and these are business operators suchas companies and plants. Another is the small-scale users, whosecurrently effective contract demand is less than 500 kilowatts. Thereare 3.2 million of these business operators such as ordinary offices andconvenience stores. The third group is the 21 million households, whosecurrently effective contract demand is less than 50 kilowatts. Theestimated actual power consumption of each group is as follows: thecommercial-scale users group accounts for about 15 percent of the total,and the small-scale users group and households group each account for alittle over 40 percent, respectively.

TEPCO offers a "contract for adjustment of supply and demand" tocommercial-scale users. Under the system, users are allowed to useelectricity at a discount price under normal conditions, but whenelectricity demand becomes close to the supply, they are obliged tocontrol their own power consumption. Under such urgent conditions, theymust reduce their consumption for more than three hours continuously bymore than 20 percent of their contract demand or more than 1,000kilowatts. There are three types regarding the starting time oflimitation. The users should reduce their consumption (1) as soon asreceiving TEPCO's notice, (2) within one hour of receiving the notice,or (3) within three hours after receiving the notice. According tonewspapers accounts, more than 1,200 commercial-scale users are underthis type of contract.

Moreover, there are other types of contracts: (1) the instantaneousadjustment power contract, (2) a contract during summer vacations thatrequires users to operate their business on holidays instead of weekdaysbetween July and September whenever TEPCO makes the request, (3) asummer-time operation adjustment contract that requires users to adjusttheir power use for a certain period that TEPCO specifies between Julyand September, and (4) a peak-time adjustment contract that requiresusers to adjust their power consumption for a certain time during 1 to 4p.m. on any day that TEPCO requests between June and September. In April2011, TEPCO eased the requirements for companies to enter such contractsfor the adjustment of supply and demand, thereby making it possible toincrease the number of contracting companies, and to promote bettercontrols on power demand.

The Japanese government plans to impose mandatory curbs on electricityuse, based on article 27 of the Electricity Business Act "Restriction onUse of Electricity," by requesting commercial-scale users such asbusinesses and plants to cut their electricity consumption at peak timeon weekdays by 25 percent. This will be the first time for thegovernment to invoke such compulsory restrictions since 1974, whencorporate users -- except for waterworks departments, schools, andrailway companies -- were obliged to reduce power consumption by 15percent due to the oil crisis.

Also, in the business sector, various industry groups are drawing upvoluntary energy-saving plans. Led by the Japan Business Federation(Nippon Keidanren), companies are considering operating their plantsduring usual summer vacations, weekends, and nighttime, when the peakdemand is reduced, or operating each company's plant on a day-by-dayrotating basis. Moreover, each company is making its own energy-savingplans, such as giving employees a longer summer vacation and fewerholidays in other periods. For example, this year Sony Corporation saysthe company will extend its usual four-day summer vacation to about twoweeks, while all national holidays in the latter half of this year willbe changed to business days.

Regarding commercial-scale users, we can grasp how much the power demandis curbed due to the government's mandatory restrictions and theleadership of industrial groups, but the number of such users is limitedand accounts for only 15 percent of total power consumption. Forsmall-scale users, the government intends to set a reduction target of20 percent and require them to formulate specific plans, such asreducing air conditioning and having shorter business hours.

Regarding the household sector, it is difficult for the government tofind effective direct control measures, since the number of individualhouseholds is large, and government orders have less impact compared toindustries that have industry associations upon which government pressurecan be applied. Given the present circumstances, the government isaiming for a 15 percent reduction in household power consumption byraising awareness through its official webpage and local governments,although specific measures are not yet decided.

We at Japan for Sustainability will provide information on how Japanwill survive this summer without sufficient electricity and upcomingfull-scale initiatives by industry, government, academia, and citizens.Due to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and the nuclear power plantaccidents, people in every sector in Japan are being forced to face an"absolute limit" of power supply, and need to tackle the challenge ofhow we manage to keep our livelihoods and businesses within the limit.To stop global warming and climate change that are becoming even moreserious, we are also facing the "limit" of greenhouse gas emissions.This does not yet elicit such a strong commitment or initiatives "toabsolutely keep within the limits" by all the people in Japan, but webelieve that we should do so sooner than later.

We believe that our efforts, our trials and errors, and our lessons andprogress to find solutions to cope with these absolute limits in thecoming summer will be useful not only for Japan but for the world tolearn from.

Written by Junko Edahiro 2011

Japan for Sustainability 2011