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:: European Solar PV Market Sees Modest Pick Up in Year-End Demand; Industry Braces for Bleak 2012

A projected Q/Q rise of 22% in the Q4’11 European photovoltaic market is providing a welcome temporary boost for downstream solar companies. However, this growth rate still leaves significant corporate challenges in the management of the tumultuous slowdown this year in the world’s largest regional photovoltaic market. The downstream challenge in 2012 will be effective management of a new pricing environment, against a backdrop of declining incentives and still-to-be-realized grid parity economics.

Although up 22% Q/Q, Y/Y growth is forecast to drop 25% in for several reasons: major cuts in solar incentives, a weak project financing environment, and a module price path collapsing so fast that it has left downstream companies needing to offload inventories or face significant write-downs.

 

The trend of rapidly falling module prices, down 32% Y/Y at the distributor level at the end of Q3’11, has provided a compelling rationale for many downstream companies and end-customers alike to defer purchases in the expectation of further price cuts. In Germany, the prospect of a 15% tariff cut due at the start of 2012 has finally given the market a large enough boost to secure the largest share of the Q4’11 European market. However, it will be overtaken by Italy as the largest European (and global) market in 2011, despite tight bank lending constraints in Italy.

 

Ground mounted installations, while down 27% in 2011, took over one-third of the European market in H2’11 following a largely seasonal pattern of rising share towards the end of the year. Non-residential building mounted systems will take 55% share in 2011.

 

The European markets are constrained, to varying extents, by tightening of PV incentive policies, bank lending restrictions, and utility concerns over electricity grid stability as PV deployment spreads. Additionally, policy changes made by various European governments, including the United Kingdom last week, have had some significant and largely unintended consequences.

 

“Falling prices have compensated for major cuts in government solar incentives to leave PV investment returns still sufficiently attractive in almost all markets. However, the more important consequence of frequently changing incentive policies across Europe has been greater uncertainty and therefore higher risk for project financiers. This has come at the worst time for banks also suffering under macro-economic and currency crises,” noted Alan Turner, Vice President of Solarbuzz Europe.

Downstream Companies Will Need to Develop Highly Selective Market Segment Strategies

The Q1’12 market in Europe is projected to be down 72% Q/Q, with the ground mount segment the hardest hit (down 81%) and residential least affected (down 41%). At the country level, Greece, Spain, and the UK provide the highest incremental market share growth opportunities. The German market is forecast to fall 11% Y/Y in 2012. Installed system prices are forecast to decline by an average of 17% in 2012.

 

The successful realization of the benefits of grid parity will require grid management concerns to be overcome as developers, especially in Southern Europe, start to plan projects financed on the basis of power purchase agreements. Meanwhile, downstream companies in France and Italy are receding from the high risk project business to focus on the small roof sector or distribution.

 

Smaller markets offering the most stable volumes or growth potential over next 1-5 years are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Spain, Ukraine, and the UK. Although the latter is facing severe proposed tariff cuts, its residential segment will retain attractive returns with prices continuing to fall. In the major markets, residential is the strongest segment in Belgium and the UK, while ground mount is strongest in Greece and Spain. The other major markets have a more balanced segment mix. France and Italy present the largest forecast quarterly variations in segment mix through 2012.

 

The new Solarbuzz European PV Markets Quarterly report addresses the challenges and opportunities facing downstream companies in the face of slowing growth and falling prices to help them focus their marketing activities on the specific segments in certain countries that remain attractive in the near term.

 

“Our goal with the new report has been to create an easily accessible analysis that unravels the complexity of the European markets, combined with the standard of data integrity for which Solarbuzz is recognized in the industry,” commented Dr. Turner.

 

The new Solarbuzz European PV Markets Quarterly data-driven report brings together a comprehensive and detailed analysis of pan-European trends, major country market analysis and developments in smaller country markets.  PV market activity over the 12 quarters of 2010-2012 in the major markets of Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, and the UK is covered in terms of market drivers and constraints, market segmentation, policy changes and their impact on the market, downstream trends, major project activity, installed system pricing and  PV project investment economics. The smaller country analysis covers what is new and interesting in the past quarter in Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Israel, Romania, Slovakia, Turkey, and Ukraine. The new European PV Markets Quarterly report includes a 200-page PowerPoint report, an Excel data summary, and PolicyTracker, which is a detailed and comprehensive searchable Excel-based incentive policy archive.

 

For more information or to order Solarbuzz regional reports, contact us at one of our seven global locations, email us at contact@solarbuzz.com, or call 1.516.625.2452.

 

About SolarbuzzSolarbuzz, an NPD Group company, is a globally recognized market research business focused on solar energy and photovoltaic industries. Since 2001, Solarbuzz has grown its client base to include many of the largest global PV manufacturers, major investment banks, equipment manufacturers, materials suppliers, hedge fund companies, and a vast range of other multi-nationals. Solarbuzz offers a wide array of reports, including Marketbuzz, an annual global PV industry report, and Solarbuzz® Quarterly, which details both historical and forecast data on the global PV supply chain. The company’s research also provides annual downstream PV market reports by region for Europe, Asia Pacific and US markets. In addition,Solarbuzz.com is a recognized and respected online resource within the solar industry. For more information, visit www.solarbuzz.com or follow us on Twitter at @Solarbuzz.

 

About The NPD Group, Inc.The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,800 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, contact us or visit www.npd.com and www.npdgroupblog.com. Follow us on Twitter at@npdtech and @npdgroup.

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