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Article 76 from 129
:: Germany will likely remain the world‘s largest PV market – the only question is whether it implodes
For some time, supply has limited demand on the PV market – but what determines demand? The short answer: price.
The long answer, at least for solar modules, is a 181 page report titled Detailing Demand – Where will all the Volume go? In this study, solar analyst Chris Porter describes where he thinks a phenomenal 23 GW of modules will be installed in 2010. Today‘s leading market Germany alone will contribute more than 6 GW to that total.
To a certain extent, this is a story of counting totals and tracking distribution. Jigar Shah for one has been counting. The vice president of Beltsville, Maryland-based solar electricity provider SunEdison LLC keeps a running list of how much silicon all new manufacturers will produce by 2010. In another list, he adds up how much cell and thin-film module manufacturers could produce in the same year. The results of both counts: in two years, there will be enough material to produce about 21.3 GW of module power – and on top of everything, enough factories use those raw materials. PHOTON Consulting maintains a similar list. Unlike Shah‘s list, it‘s kept secret. Nonetheless, PHOTON Consulting, the consulting branch of publishing house Solar Verlag GmbH, has now revealed its results: cell and module production will amount to at least 23 GW in 2010. So, whomever you chose to believe, it looks like the PV market is positioned to sextuple in growth in just three years – according to PHOTON Consulting estimates „only“ 3.9 GW were produced in 2007.
This raises the question of distribution: in what countries will all of these modules be manufactured in 2010? Chris Porter from PHOTON Consulting has attempted to answer that question. The answer is a study to be published in March under the title Detailing Demand – Where will all the Volume go? Right away, we can say: the industry will be talking about this analysis. That‘s because PHOTON Consulting believes that the PV industry will find buyers for all 23 GW of the modules it produces. „Concerns over the global market‘s ability to absorb all of this supply have led many to conclude that such rapid volume growth will lead to massive oversupply and a module price crash,“ Chris Porter wrote in PHOTON Consulting‘s monthly column in this magazine in February (see PI 2/2008, p. 96). But he continues: „We‘ve come to a different conclusion.“ He believes that in 2010 a module will have a worldwide average price of $3.03. In markets that won‘t tolerate these prices, Porter estimates that manufacturers will still be able to sell their wares for $2.50 to $2.70 per W. With production costs typically $1.60 per W, manufacturers will still be able to make money selling PV technology – with or without a module glut.
The complete article is available here
To a certain extent, this is a story of counting totals and tracking distribution. Jigar Shah for one has been counting. The vice president of Beltsville, Maryland-based solar electricity provider SunEdison LLC keeps a running list of how much silicon all new manufacturers will produce by 2010. In another list, he adds up how much cell and thin-film module manufacturers could produce in the same year. The results of both counts: in two years, there will be enough material to produce about 21.3 GW of module power – and on top of everything, enough factories use those raw materials. PHOTON Consulting maintains a similar list. Unlike Shah‘s list, it‘s kept secret. Nonetheless, PHOTON Consulting, the consulting branch of publishing house Solar Verlag GmbH, has now revealed its results: cell and module production will amount to at least 23 GW in 2010. So, whomever you chose to believe, it looks like the PV market is positioned to sextuple in growth in just three years – according to PHOTON Consulting estimates „only“ 3.9 GW were produced in 2007.
This raises the question of distribution: in what countries will all of these modules be manufactured in 2010? Chris Porter from PHOTON Consulting has attempted to answer that question. The answer is a study to be published in March under the title Detailing Demand – Where will all the Volume go? Right away, we can say: the industry will be talking about this analysis. That‘s because PHOTON Consulting believes that the PV industry will find buyers for all 23 GW of the modules it produces. „Concerns over the global market‘s ability to absorb all of this supply have led many to conclude that such rapid volume growth will lead to massive oversupply and a module price crash,“ Chris Porter wrote in PHOTON Consulting‘s monthly column in this magazine in February (see PI 2/2008, p. 96). But he continues: „We‘ve come to a different conclusion.“ He believes that in 2010 a module will have a worldwide average price of $3.03. In markets that won‘t tolerate these prices, Porter estimates that manufacturers will still be able to sell their wares for $2.50 to $2.70 per W. With production costs typically $1.60 per W, manufacturers will still be able to make money selling PV technology – with or without a module glut.
The complete article is available here
Source:
PHOTON International | Christoph Podewils | April 2008
PHOTON International | Christoph Podewils | April 2008
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Article 76 from 129
