{"id":103272,"date":"2024-11-16T02:56:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T01:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=103272"},"modified":"2024-11-15T09:56:37","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T08:56:37","slug":"fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project science team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2<\/sub>) emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still \u201cno sign\u201d that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the last 10 years, fossil CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions have risen while land-use change CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions have declined on average \u2013 leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, both fossil and land-use change CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Ni\u00f1o climate event of 2023-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO<sub>2<\/sub> in the atmosphere continues to rise \u2013 driving increasingly dangerous global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,\u201d said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/gsiexeter.co.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Global Systems Institute<\/a>, who led the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTime is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals \u2013 and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2\u00b0C warming above pre-industrial levels.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Professor Corinne Le Qu\u00e9r\u00e9, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA\u2019s School of Environmental Sciences, said: \u201cDespite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dr Glen Peters, of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, said: \u201cThere are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cClimate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cProgress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Professor Friedlingstein added: \u201cUntil we reach net zero CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China\u2019s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India\u2019s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total, and counted separately from national\/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade, but are set to rise in 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Permanent CO<sub>2<\/sub> removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO<sub>2<\/sub> emitted from fossil fuels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub> levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The effects of the temporary El Ni\u00f1o climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as the land CO<sub>2<\/sub> \u201csink\u201d) in 2023, which is projected to recover as El Ni\u00f1o ended by the second quarter of 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The land and ocean CO<sub>2<\/sub> sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How long until we pass 1.5\u00b0C of global warming?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This study estimates the remaining \u201ccarbon budget\u201d before the 1.5\u00b0C target is breached consistently over multiple years, not just for a single year. At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates a 50% chance global warming will exceed 1.5\u00b0C consistently in about six years. This estimate is subject to large uncertainties, primarily due to the uncertainty of the additional warming coming from non-CO<sub>2<\/sub> agents (e.g., CH<sub>4<\/sub>, N<sub>2<\/sub>O, aerosols). However, it\u2019s clear that the remaining carbon budget \u2013 and therefore the time left to meet the 1.5\u00b0C target and avoid the worst impacts of climate change \u2013 has almost run out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 120 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner. The 2024 edition (the 19th annual report) will be published in the journal <em>Earth System Science Data<\/em> on November 13 as a pre-print, and later as a peer-reviewed paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data Availability: <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>All material, publications, data, figures (including by country), are available under embargo on the following link: <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/drive\/folders\/1yJ0hW9nQFih_3mmjAOKtRaMDi2mql1vo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/drive.google.com\/drive\/folders\/1yJ0hW9nQFih_3mmjAOKtRaMDi2mql1vo<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fachartikel: Earth System Science Data,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/essd.copernicus.org\/preprints\/essd-2024-519\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">doi: 10.5194\/essd-2024-519<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quelle<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/globalcarbonbudget.org\/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GLOBAL CARBON project 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-flex-start shariff-widget-align-flex-start\"><div class=\"ShariffHeadline\">Diese Meldung teilen<\/div><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8;border-radius:1%\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sonnenseite.com%2Fen%2Fscience%2Ffossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024%2F\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\";border-radius:1%; 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