{"id":109201,"date":"2025-08-30T05:28:39","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T03:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=109201"},"modified":"2025-08-30T15:33:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T13:33:54","slug":"analysis-record-solar-growth-keeps-chinas-co2-falling-in-first-half-of-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/economy\/analysis-record-solar-growth-keeps-chinas-co2-falling-in-first-half-of-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Record solar growth keeps China\u2019s CO2 falling in first half of 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clean-energy growth helped China\u2019s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fall by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending a declining&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trend<\/a>&nbsp;that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-monthly-drop-hints-that-chinas-co2-emissions-may-have-peaked-in-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">started<\/a>&nbsp;in March 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CO2 output of the nation\u2019s power sector&nbsp;\u2013 its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/interactive.carbonbrief.org\/the-carbon-brief-profile-china\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dominant source<\/a>&nbsp;of emissions&nbsp;\u2013 fell by 3% in the first half of the year, as growth in solar power alone matched the rise in electricity demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that record solar capacity additions are putting China\u2019s CO2 emissions on track to fall across 2025 as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief-1024x483.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-109202\" style=\"width:742px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief-1024x483.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief-300x142.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief-768x363.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CarbonBrief.jpg 1059w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Year-on-year change in China\u2019s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, for the period January-June 2025, million tonnes of CO2. Source: Emissions are estimated from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/tjsj\/zxfb\/202107\/t20210715_1819441.html\">National Bureau of Statistics data<\/a>\u00a0on production of different fuels and cement,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.customs.gov.cn\/customs\/302249\/zfxxgk\/2799825\/302274\/302275\/3761834\/index.html\">China Customs data<\/a>\u00a0on imports and exports and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wind.com.cn\/en\/wft.html\">WIND Information<\/a>\u00a0data on changes in inventories, applying emissions factors from China\u2019s latest national greenhouse gas\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/resource\/China_BUR3_English.pdf\">emissions inventory<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/11207133\">annual emissions factors\u00a0<\/a>per tonne of cement production until 2024. Sector breakdown of coal consumption is estimated using coal consumption data from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wind.com.cn\/en\/wft.html\">WIND Information<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nea.gov.cn\/2024-04\/22\/c_1310772067.htm\">electricity data<\/a>\u00a0from the National Energy Administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Other key findings include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The growth in clean power generation, some 270 terawatt hours (TWh) excluding hydro, significantly outpaced demand growth of 170TWh\u00a0 in the first half of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Solar capacity additions set new records due to a rush before a June\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/explainer-how-chinas-renewable-pricing-reforms-will-affect-its-climate-goals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">policy change<\/a>, with 212 gigawatts (GW) added in the first half of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This rush means solar is likely to set an annual record for growth in 2025, becoming China\u2019s single-largest source of clean power generation in the process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Coal-power capacity could surge by as much as 80-100GW this year, potentially setting a new annual record, even as coal-fired electricity generation declines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The use of coal to make synthetic fuels and chemicals is growing rapidly, climbing 20% in the first half of the year and helping add 3% to China\u2019s CO2 since 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The coal-chemical industry is planning further expansion, which could add another 2% to China\u2019s CO2 by 2029, making the 2030 deadline for peaking harder to meet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if its emissions fall in 2025 as expected, however, China is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bound to miss<\/a>&nbsp;multiple important climate targets this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This includes targets to reduce its carbon intensity \u2013&nbsp;the emissions per unit of GDP&nbsp;\u2013&nbsp;to strictly control coal consumption growth and new coal-power capacity, as well as to increase the share of cleaner electric-arc steelmaking in total steel output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If policymakers want to make up for these shortfalls, then there will be additional pressure on China\u2019s next \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">nationally determined contribution<\/a>\u201d (NDC, its international climate pledge for 2035) and its 15th&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/interactive.carbonbrief.org\/glossary\/china\/index.html#section-five-year-plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">five-year&nbsp;plan<\/a>&nbsp;for 2026-30, both due to be finalised in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The falling trend in CO2 emissions \u2013&nbsp;and the clean-energy growth that is driving it&nbsp;\u2013&nbsp;could give policymakers greater confidence that more ambitious targets are achievable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Read the full analysis&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-record-solar-growth-keeps-chinas-co2-falling-in-first-half-of-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-exports-in-2024-alone-will-cut-overseas-co2-by-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;<\/a>on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Carbon Brief<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"green\">Source<\/h5>\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a 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