{"id":109896,"date":"2025-09-30T02:31:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T00:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=109896"},"modified":"2025-09-30T09:39:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T07:39:15","slug":"drought-and-low-water-levels-could-slow-global-trade-at-the-panama-canal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/environment\/drought-and-low-water-levels-could-slow-global-trade-at-the-panama-canal\/","title":{"rendered":"Drought and low water levels could slow global trade at the Panama Canal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Taking steps to keep water flowing to the Panama Canal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A vital waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the Panama Canal relies on fresh water supplied by a reservoir to raise and lower the locks that allow the transit of thousands of ships a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During times of drought, fewer vessels make it through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new paper<\/a> by Northeastern University professor Samuel Munoz<\/a> reports that the risk of shipping disruptions will grow in a warming climate unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to drier conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe canal is vulnerable to drought. That vulnerability increases with climate change,\u201d he says. \u201cThe models think that the more we warm things, the more severe and frequent these droughts become in Panama.\u201d Related: What is \u2018weather whiplash\u2019? And why scientists say it\u2019s becoming the new normal<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings highlight the need to address a growing risk to a key link in the global supply chain with \u201cproactive adaptation or mitigation\u201d that maintains canal functionality, Munoz says inresearch published in Geophysical Research Letters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water levels in the reservoir<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

For his study, conducted when he was on sabbatical in the spring, Munoz used high-resolution climate projections to simulate future levels of the feeder reservoir, Gatun Lake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He found that \u201cdisruptive low water conditions\u201d became increasingly common under moderately high and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios but not under low-emissions scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is because Gatun Lake is fed primarily by rainfall, and higher emissions were associated with reduced wet season rainfall and increased evaporation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cEvery time a ship goes through, it uses a lot of water\u201d through the flooding of locks to raise and lower ships as they cross the continental divide, says Munoz, associate professor of marine and environmental sciences and civil and environmental engineering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen they have droughts, the main thing that they can do is basically reduce the number of ships transiting through,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent droughts, including one in 2023 and 2024<\/a>, caused canal operators to reduce the weight and number of ships that cross the 50-mile-long waterway. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reducing the impact of emissions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Using 27 different climate models and varying emission mitigation scenarios, Munoz predicted lake levels monthly out to the end of the century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitigation means bringing down emissions and global temperatures.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe looked at the rain coming in, we looked at how much water was evaporating away under these different scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnder the scenarios where we don\u2019t mitigate emissions very much, the amount of rain that Panama gets goes down a lot and the amount of evaporation that occurs goes up a lot, so low lake levels become really problematic, really more common and severe than they are now,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut in scenarios where we do more mitigation of greenhouse gases,  there\u2019s less change (in water levels) and it stabilizes more,\u201d Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimate scientists look at a range of scenarios,\u201d Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWill we mitigate (emissions) really aggressively? It doesn\u2019t look like it,\u201d he says. \u201cWill we not mitigate at all? Probably not. We\u2019re currently headed down one of the middle emissions pathways.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adaptation and a new reservoir<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

For global and U.S. trade, the future of the Panama Canal is vitally important, Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An average of 14,000 ships transit the canal annually, including 40% of U.S. container ships<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we\u2019re not going to mitigate emissions, then significant adaptation measures are needed to keep it functioning,\u201d Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Panamanian authorities are looking to the future with plans to build a new reservoir to supplement Gatun Lake as well as finding ways to more efficiently use existing water supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey use the reservoir also for hydroelectric power for the country and drinking water for Panama City,\u201d so it makes sense to adapt to changing conditions, Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dealing with uncertainty<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

While the best climate models, including NOAA\u2019s Community Earth Systems Model, forecast drier conditions in Panama, there is still some uncertainty due to the local impact of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The climate pattern involves surface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and associated atmospheric circulation, Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a region of the world where climate scientists still aren\u2019t 100% sure exactly what will happen,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn Panama, canal authorities acknowledge there\u2019s uncertainty, but they are still moving ahead with these major investments to try to keep things stable,\u201d Munoz says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSmart management and mitigation are going to be key to keeping ships moving.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

Source<\/h5>\r\n\n\n\n

Northeastern University 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n

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