{"id":111514,"date":"2025-12-16T10:26:56","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T09:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=111514"},"modified":"2025-12-16T10:32:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T09:32:55","slug":"the-alps-to-lose-a-record-number-of-glaciers-in-the-next-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/the-alps-to-lose-a-record-number-of-glaciers-in-the-next-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"The Alps to lose a record number of glaciers in the next decade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How much longer will glaciers survive? A new study from ETH Zurich researchers offers the first detailed projection of how many glaciers could vanish by 2100 due to global warming \u2013 and why regions such as Switzerland will be most affected. This approach could also help policymakers, the tourism industry and natural hazard management plan for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00a0In a groundbreaking study, an international team led by ETH Zurich researchers has for the first time calculated how many glaciers worldwide are likely to remain until the end of the century and for how long.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depending on how sharply the planet warms, the study shows that in a scenario with a global temperature rise of +4\u00b0 C, only about 18,000 glaciers would remain, whereas at +1.5\u202f\u00b0 C there would be around 100,000.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The researchers coined \u201cPeak Glacier Extinction\u201d, the point when annual glacier loss hits its maximum. At +1.5\u202f\u00b0 C it occurs around 2041 with 2,000 glaciers lost; at +4\u202f\u00b0 C it shifts to 2055 and rises to 4,000.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Glaciers are melting worldwide. In some regions, they could even disappear completely. Looking at the number of glaciers disappearing, the Alps could reach their peak loss rate as early as 2033 to 2041. Depending on how sharply the planet warms, this period may mark a time when more glaciers vanish than ever before. Worldwide, the peak glacier loss rate will occur about ten years later and could rise from 2,000 to 4,000 glaciers lost each year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Alps, the outlook is stark: If current climate policies steer the world towards a temperature rise of +2.7\u00b0 C, only about 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe by 2100 \u2013 a mere 3\u202fper cent of today\u2019s total. At +4\u00b0 C, that number would plunge to around 20. Even medium-sized glaciers such as the Rh\u00f4ne Glacier would shrink to tiny remnants of ice or disappear completely. In this scenario, the mighty Aletsch Glacier would fragment into several smaller parts. This continues a trend that ETH researchers have already traced in the past \u2013 and it shows no sign of slowing: only recently, they revealed that between 1973 and 2016, more than 1,000 glaciers vanished in Switzerland alone (cf. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/annals-of-glaciology\/article\/vanished-glaciers-of-the-swiss-alps-an-inventorybased-assessment-from-1973-to-2016\/3573DF89F8EDA365C508BB69853D766C\">external page Annals of Glaciology<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_Rhonegletscher.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"863\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_Rhonegletscher.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-111512\" style=\"width:584px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_Rhonegletscher.jpg 863w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_Rhonegletscher-300x229.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_Rhonegletscher-768x586.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 863px) 100vw, 863px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Under extreme warming, even medium-sized glaciers such as the Rh\u00f4ne Glacier shrink dramatically. By 2100, depending on the global warming scenario, only 20 glaciers could remain in the Alps.  (Images: ETH Zurich \/ Chair of Glaciology)\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More Than Half of Small Glaciers Lost&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>An international team of researchers led by ETH Zurich, the WSL research institute and the Vrije Universiteit Brussel has drawn this and further conclusions in a groundbreaking study that, for the first time, calculates how many glaciers worldwide disappear each year, are likely to remain until the end of the century, and for how long. \u201cFor the first time, we\u2019ve put years on when every single glacier on Earth will disappear,\u201d says Lander Van Tricht, lead author of the study published on 15 December 2025 in Nature Climate Change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike previous research, which mainly focused on global ice mass and surface area loss, the ETH Zurich-led team shifts the spotlight to the number of disappearing glaciers, their regions, and the timeline of their disappearance. Their findings reveal that regions with many small glaciers at lower elevations or near the equator are particularly vulnerable \u2013 including the Alps, the Caucasus, the Rocky Mountains, as well as parts of the Andes and African mountain ranges that lie in low latitudes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn these regions, more than half of all glaciers are expected to vanish within the next ten to twenty years,\u201d says Van Tricht, a researcher at ETH Zurich\u2019s Chair of Glaciology and the WSL research institute.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Many Glaciers in the Alps \u2013 and Worldwide \u2013 Will Survive?&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The pace of glacier retreat depends on the extent of global warming. For this reason, the researchers ran projections using three state-of-the-art global glacier models and several climate scenarios. For the Alps, they found that with a +1.5\u00b0 C rise, 12 per cent of glaciers would remain by 2100 (roughly 430 out of about 3,000 in 2025); at +2\u00b0 C, around 8 per cent or ca. 270 glaciers would survive \u2013 and at +4\u00b0 C, just 1 per cent, or 20 glaciers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For comparison: In the Rocky Mountains, around 4,400 glaciers would endure under the 1.5\u202f\u00b0C scenario \u2013 about 25 per cent of today\u2019s roughly 18,000 glaciers. At +4\u00b0 C, only about 101 would remain, a 99 per cent loss. In the Andes and Central Asia, about 43 per cent would survive at 1.5\u00b0 C. But at +4\u202f\u00b0C, the numbers plummet: in the Andes, only around 950 glaciers would remain, a 94 per cent loss; in Central Asia, roughly 2,500 glaciers \u2013 a 96 percent decline. Overall, it can be said that in a scenario with a global temperature rise of +4\u00b0 C only about 18,000 glaciers would remain, whereas at +1.5\u00b0 C there would be around 100,000.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The study also shows that there is no region left where glaciers numbers are not declining. Even in the Karakoram of Central Asia, where some glaciers temporarily grew after the turn of the millennium, glaciers are projected to disappear.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Every Degree of Warming Matters \u2014 or Twice as Many Glaciers Will Die&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In their study, the ETH Zurich researchers introduce the term \u201cPeak Glacier Extinction\u201d, which marks the point or zenith when the number of glaciers disappearing within a single year reaches its maximum. After that, the annual loss rates decline \u2013 simply because most of the smaller glaciers have already disappeared. From a climate policy perspective, this matters: the shrinking of glaciers will continue even as the number of disappearing glaciers will decline after the peak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The team calculated this peak for different warming scenarios. Under a +1.5\u00b0 C rise in global warming, as envisaged by the Paris Agreement, it would occur around 2041, when roughly 2,000 glaciers vanish in just one year. At +4\u00b0 C, the peak shifts to about 2055 \u2013 but climbs to around 4,000 glaciers. That the peak comes later under stronger warming may seem paradoxical. The reason: in warmer conditions, not only do small glaciers melt completely, but larger glaciers vanish as well. Capturing this total loss of even the biggest glaciers is a key strength of the new approach.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ETH Zurich researchers show that at +4\u00b0 C, twice as many glaciers disappear at the peak as under +1.5\u00b0 C. While about half of today\u2019s glaciers survive in the 1.5-degree scenario, only one-fifth remain at +2.7\u00b0 C \u2013 and just one-tenth at +4\u00b0 C. Every tenth of a degree counts in slowing the decline. \u201cThe results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed,\u201d says Daniel Farinotti, co-author and ETH Zurich Professor of Glaciology.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_MatthiasHuss_PizolGlets-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"983\" height=\"355\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_MatthiasHuss_PizolGlets-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-111515\" style=\"width:728px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_MatthiasHuss_PizolGlets-1.jpg 983w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_MatthiasHuss_PizolGlets-1-300x108.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ETH_MatthiasHuss_PizolGlets-1-768x277.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 983px) 100vw, 983px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Small glaciers in the Alps are disappearing completely \u2013 as already happened with the Pizol Glacier \u2013 and this is becoming increasingly common. The photo shows the Pizol in 2006<br>\u2026\u00a0and the same spot in 2025\u00a0 (Images: Matthias Huss \/ ETH Zurich, Chair of Glaciology)\u202f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Does Glacier Retreat Mean for Politics, Culture and the Economy?&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>How does glacier retreat affect people and culture? The new perspective promises fresh insights for politics, business, and culture. Previous studies focused on measuring glacier loss by mass and volume, which allowed projections for sea-level rise and water resource management. \u201cThe melting of a small glacier hardly contributes to rising seas. But when a glacier disappears completely, it can severely impact tourism in a valley,\u201d says Lander Van Tricht.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new study not only reveals when and where glaciers will vanish; it can also help policymakers, communities, tourism sector and natural hazard managers prepare for a future with less ice and water.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against this backdrop, ETH Zurich researchers are also involved in initiatives such as the Global Glacier Casualty List, which aims to preserve the names and stories of lost glaciers \u2013 contributing, among others, the stories of the Birch and Pizol glaciers. \u201cEvery glacier is tied to a place, a story and people who feel its loss,\u201d says Van Tricht. \u201cThat\u2019s why we work both to protect the glaciers that remain and to keep alive the memory of those that are gone.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-025-02513-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201ePeak Glacier Extinction in the mid-twenty-first century\u201c | Nature Climate Change, 15 December 2025. DOI:10.1038\/s41558-025-02513-9.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/glaciercasualtylist.rice.edu\/\">external page Glacier Casualty List<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.un-glaciers.org\/en\">external page 2025 International Year of Glaciers\u2019 Preservation<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.un-cryosphere.org\/en\">external page Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences (2025-2034)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"green\">Source<\/h5>\r\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ethz.ch\/en\/news-and-events\/eth-news\/news\/2025\/12\/the-alps-to-lose-record-number-of-glaciers-in-the-next-decade.html\">ETH Zurich 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-flex-start shariff-widget-align-flex-start\"><div class=\"ShariffHeadline\">Diese Meldung teilen<\/div><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8;border-radius:1%\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sonnenseite.com%2Fen%2Fscience%2Fthe-alps-to-lose-a-record-number-of-glaciers-in-the-next-decade%2F\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\";border-radius:1%; 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A new study from ETH Zurich researchers offers the first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":111507,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Alps to lose a record number of glaciers in the next decade - Sonnenseite - \u00d6kologische Kommunikation mit Franz Alt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How much longer will glaciers survive? 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