{"id":112784,"date":"2026-02-20T02:59:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T01:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=112784"},"modified":"2026-02-19T14:59:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T13:59:45","slug":"global-warming-must-peak-below-2c-to-limit-tipping-point-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/global-warming-must-peak-below-2c-to-limit-tipping-point-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Global warming must peak below 2\u00b0C to limit tipping point risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global warming must peak below 2\u00b0C then return under 1.5\u00b0C as quickly as possible to limit the risk of triggering tipping points in the Earth system. In the long term, global temperatures must cool to around 1\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, experts say. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new study by an international team of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the University of Exeter, and the Centre for International Climate Research (CICERO) was published in Environmental Research Letters today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A tipping point defines a critical threshold beyond which a previously relatively stable subsystem of the Earth can shift into a new state. Even a small change in environmental conditions can spark a transformation of that subsystem, which can be rapid and irreversible. Subsystems at risk of tipping include tropical coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest, permafrost and major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Up to eight tipping points could be reached below 2\u00b0C warming, according to the new study. It builds on a chapter of the 2025 Global Tipping Points Report<\/a>, which was presented at the UN Climate Conference COP30 in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s concerning that, even with a small and relatively brief overshoot of the 1.5\u00b0C target, up to five Earth system tipping points could be triggered \u2013 especially as it now appears almost unavoidable that global warming will exceed 1.5\u00b0C in the late 2020s or early 2030s,\u201d says co-lead author Nico Wunderling from PIK and Goethe University Frankfurt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some subsystems are particularly sensitive to overshooting the 1.5\u00b0C limit<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe tipping point for several Earth systems could therefore be crossed \u2013 at least temporarily,\u201d says lead author Paul Ritchie, from Exeter\u2019s Global Systems Institute. \u201cHowever, tipping does not occur immediately upon crossing a tipping point. If we limit the maximum level of warming, and keep the duration of the overshoot short, tipping could still be avoided for many tipping elements of the Earth system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ritchie explained that some systems \u2013 such as tropical coral reefs \u2013 respond very quickly to higher temperatures and are therefore especially vulnerable to \u201covershoots, even when they are short. In contrast, potential tipping points with slower response times may be less sensitive to temporary overshoot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norman Steinert, co-lead author from CICERO, concluded: \u201cMinimising the peak of an overshoot is crucial, but arguably minimising the duration is even more important. However, it\u2019s important to note that these things are related: the higher the peak temperature, the more difficult it is to reverse temperature below critical levels and the longer it\u2019s likely that we\u2019ll remain in overshoot.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n