Around two-thirds of the Amazon rainforest could shift into degraded forest or savannah-like ecosystems at 1.5-1.9\u00b0C of global warming if deforestation increases to roughly 22-28 percent of the Amazon, according to a new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) published in Nature. Without additional deforestation, by contrast, such large-scale changes would likely occur only at much higher warming levels of around 3.7\u20134\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDeforestation makes the Amazon far less resilient than we previously anticipated. It dries out the atmosphere and weakens the forest\u2019s own rainfall generation,\u201d said Nico Wunderling, PIK scientist and lead author of the study. \u201cEven moderate additional warming could then trigger cascading impacts across large parts of the forest.\u201d
Around 17-18 percent of the Amazon forest has already been lost, placing the system close to the critical range identified in the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n