{"id":115593,"date":"2026-06-26T02:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T00:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=115593"},"modified":"2026-06-26T07:32:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T05:32:48","slug":"getting-even-hotter-researchers-predict-global-warming-of-1-7-degrees-by-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/getting-even-hotter-researchers-predict-global-warming-of-1-7-degrees-by-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting even hotter: Researchers predict global warming of 1.7 degrees by 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While Europe is currently sweltering in the heat, global temperatures are also rising towards concerning record levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, Earth\u2019s surface air temperature is expected to reach 1.62 degrees, and in 2027 even 1.71 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The long-term temperature rise \u2013 an average over a 20-year period \u2013 is predicted to exceed the 1.5-degree threshold of the Paris Agreement as of 2026 already. For the first time, researchers at the University of Graz have been able to make such a forecast so far in advance. The intensifying El Ni\u00f1o climate event favors forecast skill and thereby facilitates a reliable computation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSuch an early and accurate forecast covering two years, combined with a long-term one extending to 2035, is a real first. We now understand the warming driven by human-made greenhouse gas emissions, in conjunction with climate fluctuations like El Ni\u00f1o, so well that we could make a reliable forecast,\u201d explains Gottfried Kirchengast, climate researcher at the Wegener Center and Department of Physics at the University of Graz. His doctoral student Moritz Pichler, who developed the innovative methodology alongside him, adds: \u201cWe used observational data up to May 2026, seasonal forecasts from June onwards, and for the year 2027 our solid pre-knowledge on the continuing rise in global warming as well as the temperature dynamics during strong El Ni\u00f1o events.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n


However, the latter phenomenon contributes only a small part to the rising heat. The researchers find the long-term rise in temperature, fueled by the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly worrying. Their new reference dataset on global surface air temperature since 1850 shows, with over 99 percent statistical certainty, an accelerated increase since 1980 and, by now, a drastic collision with the Paris climate targets. Long-term warming will reach 1.55 degrees next year and is expected to exceed the Paris Agreement\u2019s limit goal of \u201cwell below 2 degrees\u201d as early as 2032, reaching over 1.7 degrees. \u201cThis is due to a lack of ambition in climate action. Climate hazards that could have been avoided, such as the current extreme heatwave in Europe, are a direct consequence,\u201d says Kirchengast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human influence<\/strong>
In a recent publication, the physicist also presented a groundbreaking method for calculating risk levels for extreme weather and climate events (see News<\/a>). In it, he demonstrates the link between the man-made increase in thermal energy in the global atmosphere and the extreme heat in Austria and across Europe. Together with J\u00fcrgen Fuchsberger from his team, he has now applied the method to analyse the current heatwave in Austria and shows that even this single event is driven by global warming. His critical conclusion: \u201cGiven my prior knowledge, I am not technically surprised, but I am truly dismayed at how clearly a single heatwave alone reveals the impact of global warming and, with it, the failure of climate protection efforts to date. This is a glaring injustice towards poorer people who emit few greenhouse gases yet are severely affected, and towards the current generation of children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a>
The graphic illustrates the observed increase in global surface air temperature up to 2025, the prediction for 2026-2027 and the projected increase up to 2035. The observational data for the individual years extend to 2025, while the annual values for the long-term global warming extend to 2035 (each representing the average over 20 years, assigned to the central year; from 2016 onwards also including projection information). The forecast results for 2026 and 2027 are highlighted with numerical values (that include a 90 percent confidence range), for both the annual prediction and the long-term mean results.
The future up to 2040 is supplemented by two possible scenarios. The blue line depicts the IPCC’s ambitious climate action scenario that is compliant with the Paris goals: strong emission reductions of over 50 percent by 2035 towards then achieving net-zero CO\u2082 emissions around the middle of the century. The orange line shows the scenario with current emissions continuing nearly unabated, leading to a failure to meet the Paris goals, with an exceedance of 1.7 \u00b0C already before 2035. The Paris target ranges for the <1.5\u00b0C main goal and the <1.7\u00b0C limit goal (for a sufficiently limited temporary overshoot of 1.5 \u00b0C in order to enable return to below this level again after 2050) are plotted as defined in the underlying publication by Kirchengast & Pichler (2025).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n