{"id":13411,"date":"2018-12-01T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-12-01T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/energy\/42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study.html"},"modified":"2018-12-01T05:00:00","modified_gmt":"2018-12-01T04:00:00","slug":"42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/energy\/42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study\/","title":{"rendered":"42% of global coal power plants run at a loss, finds world-first study"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New wind and solar will be cheaper than 96% of existing coal power by 2030<\/p>\n<p> <!--more--> <\/p>\n<p>Two-fifths of the world&rsquo;s coal power stations are already running at a  loss, finds Carbon Tracker in a unique study released today which  challenges the need for new coal generation and shows that it makes  economic sense to close plants in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.<\/p>\n<p>The financial think tank has carried out the first global analysis of  the profitability of 6,685 coal plants worldwide, representing 95%  (1900GW) of all operating capacity and 90% (220GW) of capacity under  construction, and has published the results in a new coal power  economics portal. The portal can be viewed here once embargo lifts:  www.carbontracker.com\/reports\/coal-portal<\/p>\n<p>The unique, free-to-use online tool will be updated regularly,  helping investors, policymakers and civil society develop economically  rational plans to close coal plants and to understand the financial risk  if they continue to operate. The UN&rsquo;s Intergovernmental Panel on  Climate Change says at least 59% of coal power worldwide must be retired  by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5&deg;C and many countries have set  phase-out dates.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Powering down coal: Navigating the economic and financial risks in  the last years of coal power and the portal are the result of a two-year  modelling exercise. Carbon Tracker finds that:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>42% of global coal capacity is already unprofitable because of high  fuel costs; by 2040 that could reach 72% as existing carbon pricing and  air pollution regulations drive up costs while the price of onshore wind  and solar power continues to fall; any future regulation would make  coal power still more unprofitable;<\/li>\n<li>it costs more to run 35% of coal power plants than to build new  renewable generation; by 2030 building new renewables will be cheaper  than continuing to operate 96% of today&rsquo;s existing and planned coal  plants.<\/li>\n<li>China could save $389 billion by closing plants in line with the  Paris Climate Agreement instead of pursuing business as usual plans; the  EU could save $89 billion; the US could save $78 billion; and Russia  could save $20 billion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Matt Gray, head of power and utilities at Carbon Tracker and co-author of the report, said:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>&ldquo;The narrative is quickly changing from how much do  we invest in new coal capacity to how do we shut down existing capacity  in a way that minimises losses. This analysis provides a blueprint for  policymakers, investors and civil society.&rdquo;<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The report warns that utilities and their shareholders are exposed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbontracker.org\/refs-and-resources\/terms-list\/#stranded-assets\" title=\"Stranded Assets\">stranded asset<\/a>  risk in liberalised markets, such as much of Europe and parts of the  US, where power generators are subject to competition. Coal plants will  be forced to shut unless they can secure government subsidies or a delay  or reduction in environmental regulations.<\/p>\n<p>However, it is the state which ultimately underwrites investment risk  in regulated markets, where coal is sheltered from competition. In  countries such as China, India, Japan and parts of the US governments  typically approve the cost of generation and pass it on to consumers.  Backing coal in the long-term will threaten economic competitiveness and  public finances, because politicians will be forced to choose between  subsidising coal power or increasing power prices for consumers.<\/p>\n<p>Consumers and taxpayers are keeping coal profitable in [many]  regulated markets by picking up the bill to support uneconomic coal  plants. A phase-out could save them billions, but would hit coal owners&rsquo;  profits. If plants are closed in line with the Paris Agreement the  industry could lose $92 billion in South Korea, $76 billion in India and  $51 billion in South Africa, compared with business as usual supported  by the state.<\/p>\n<p>Carbon Tracker says governments should phase out coal in an orderly  manner and develop plans to close the least economic plants first. When  it is cheaper to build new renewables and gas than to build new coal  power, they should ban investments in new coal power. This point has  already been reached in Europe, the US, India and parts of Latin  America.<\/p>\n<p>When it is cheaper to build new renewables and gas cost less than to  continue running existing coal plants, they should implement a coal  phase out. This appears imminent in Germany the US and other nations,  where solar PV and onshore wind has undercut coal in power auctions in  2018.<\/p>\n<p>Sebastian Ljungwaldh, Carbon Tracker energy analyst and co-author, said:&nbsp;<em>&ldquo;Our analysis shows a least-cost power system without  coal should be seen as an economic inevitability rather than a clean  and green nicety.&rdquo;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Country Operating and under construction capacity (GW)  Capacity-weighted average gross profitability ($\/MWh) Year new  renewables outcompete new coal Percentage of total coal capacity with a  higher running cost than new renewables (%) Stranded asset risk under  below 2&deg;C scenario ($\/bln) 2018 2030 2018 2030<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"upload\/Medien\/Pressebilder_2018\/carbontrackerorg.jpg\" width=\"796\" height=\"715\" \/><br \/>&copy;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbontracker.org\/42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">www.carbontracker.org<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Please see the full report for commentary on individual countries and  a more detailed table which also lists the three companies most exposed  in each country.<\/p>\n<p>Carbon Tracker developed a revolutionary new method to assess the  profitability of coal plants in countries like China with big fossil  fuel power industries but inadequate information about plant activity.  It used satellite images and advanced machine learning to estimate the  activity of each plant, a technique found to be more than 90% accurate  when trialled against known data in the US and EU.<\/p>\n<p>Laurence Watson, Carbon Tracker data scientist and co-author, said:  &ldquo;Our coal portal offers a powerful response to those governments and  asset owners who are unwilling or unable to disclose timely and accurate  data.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<h3>Methodology<\/h3>\n<p>Carbon Tracker assessed the profitability of each coal plant based on  its operating costs, taking into account fuel, maintenance costs,  investment needed to meet environmental standards, and carbon pricing  where relevant. These costs only include existing and ratified carbon  pricing and air pollution policies.<\/p>\n<p>Its modelling uses the International Energy Agency&rsquo;s &ldquo;Beyond 2&deg;C  Scenario&rdquo; (B2DS), which phases out all coal power in the EU by 2030, in  the US by 2035, and worldwide by 2040, and gives a 50% chance of  limiting global warming to 1.75&deg;C.<\/p>\n<p>It compared the long-run operating cost of each coal plant with the  levelised cost of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV, based on  long-term price trends and B2DS forecasts for the growth of these  technologies.<\/p>\n<p>It compared coal owners&rsquo; business as usual plans with the B2DS. By  assessing the operating cost of each plant and assuming the least  economic will close first, it is able to establish a rational closure  programme and identify which are most exposed in a B2DS scenario.<\/p>\n<h5 class=\"green\">Source<\/h5>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbontracker.org\/42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Carbon Tracker Initiative 2018<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-left shariff-widget-align-left\"><div class=\"ShariffHeadline\">Diese Meldung teilen<\/div><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8;border-radius:1%\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sonnenseite.com%2Fen%2Fenergy%2F42-of-global-coal-power-plants-run-at-a-loss-finds-world-first-study%2F\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" 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