{"id":36239,"date":"2016-06-14T09:04:54","date_gmt":"2016-06-14T07:04:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/energy\/coal-and-gas-to-stay-cheap-but-renewables-still-win-race-on-costs.html"},"modified":"2016-06-14T09:04:54","modified_gmt":"2016-06-14T07:04:54","slug":"coal-and-gas-to-stay-cheap-but-renewables-still-win-race-on-costs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/energy\/coal-and-gas-to-stay-cheap-but-renewables-still-win-race-on-costs\/","title":{"rendered":"Coal and gas to stay cheap, but renewables still win race on costs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This year&rsquo;s edition of BNEF&rsquo;s long-term forecast sees $11.4 trillion investment in global power generation capacity over 25 years, with electric vehicles boosting electricity demand by 8% in 2040.<\/p>\n<p> <!--more--> <\/p>\n<p>Low prices for coal and gas are likely to persist, but will fail to  prevent a fundamental transformation of the world electricity system  over coming decades towards renewable sources such as wind and solar,  and towards balancing options such as batteries. <\/p>\n<p>The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, entitled <a href=\"http:\/\/about.bnef.com\/newenergyoutlook\">New Energy Outlook 2016<\/a>,  charts a significantly lower track for global coal, gas and oil prices  than did the equivalent projection a year ago. Crucially, however, it  also shows a steeper decline for wind and solar costs.<\/p>\n<p>The forecast, covering the 2016-40 period, has mixed news on carbon  emissions. Weaker GDP growth in China and a rebalancing of its economy  will mean emissions there peak as early as 2025. However, rising  coal-fired generation in India and other Asian emerging markets indicate  that the global emissions figure in 2040 will still be some 700  megatonnes, or 5%, above 2015 levels.<\/p>\n<p>Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa for BNEF, and  lead author of NEO 2016, commented: &ldquo;Some $7.8 trillion will be invested  globally in renewables between 2016 and 2040, two thirds of the  investment in all power generating capacity, but it would require  trillions more to bring world emissions onto a track compatible with the  United Nations 2&deg;C climate target.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Here are 10 of the eye-catching findings from NEO 2016:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Coal and gas prices to stay low.<\/strong> Bloomberg New  Energy Finance has reduced its long-term forecasts for coal and gas  prices by 33% and 30% respectively, reflecting a projected supply glut  for both commodities. This cuts the cost of generating power by burning  coal or gas.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wind and solar costs fall sharply.<\/strong> The levelised  costs of generation per MWh for onshore wind will fall 41% by 2040, and  solar photovoltaics by 60%, making these two technologies the cheapest  ways of producing electricity in many countries during the 2020s and in  most of the world in the 2030s.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fossil fuel power attracts $2.1 trillion.<\/strong>  Investment in coal and gas generation will continue, predominantly in  emerging economies. Some $1.2 trillion will go into new coal-burning  capacity, and $892 billion into new gas-fired plants.<\/li>\n<li><strong>But renewables take lion&rsquo;s share.<\/strong> Some $7.8  trillion will be invested in green power, with onshore and offshore wind  attracting $3.1 trillion, utility-scale, rooftop and other small-scale  solar $3.4 trillion, and hydro-electric $911 billion.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The 2&#8304;C scenario would require much more money.<\/strong> On top of the $7.8 trillion, the world would need to invest another $5.3 trillion in zero-carbon power by 2040 to prevent CO<sub>2<\/sub> in the atmosphere rising above the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&rsquo;s &lsquo;safe&rsquo; limit of 450 parts per million.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Electric car boom supports electricity demand.<\/strong> EVs  will add 2,701TWh, or 8%, to global electricity demand in 2040 &ndash;  reflecting BNEF&rsquo;s forecast that they will represent 35% of worldwide new  light-duty vehicle sales in that year, equivalent to 41m cars, some 90  times the 2015 figure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Small-scale battery storage, a $250bn market. <\/strong>The  rise of EVs will drive down the cost of lithium-ion batteries, making  them increasingly attractive to be deployed alongside residential and  commercial solar systems. We expect total behind-the-meter energy  storage to rise dramatically from around 400MWh in today to nearly  760GWh in 2040. We expect total behind-the-meter energy storage to rise  dramatically from around 400MWh in today to nearly 760GWh in 2040.<\/li>\n<li><strong>China coal-fired generation will follow weaker trend than previously projected. <\/strong>Changes  in the Chinese economy, and a move to renewables, mean that coal-fired  generation there in 10 years&rsquo; time will be 1,000TWh, or 21% below, the  figure predicted in BNEF in last year&rsquo;s NEO.<\/li>\n<li><strong>That makes<\/strong> <strong>India the key to the future global emissions trend.<\/strong>  Its electricity demand is forecast to grow 3.8 times between 2016 and  2040. Despite investing $611bn in renewables in the next 24 years, and  $115 billion in nuclear, it will continue to rely heavily on coal power  stations to meet rising demand. This is forecast to result in a trebling  of its annual power sector emissions by 2040.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Renewables to dominate in Europe, to overtake gas in the US. <\/strong>Wind,  solar, hydro and other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of  Europe&rsquo;s power in 2040, up from 32% in 2015. In the US, their share will  jump from 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040, as that from gas slips from 33%  to 31%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Jon Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said:  &ldquo;The New Energy Outlook incorporates a significantly lower trajectory  for coal and gas prices than the 2015 edition did a year ago but,  strikingly, still shows rapid transition towards clean power over the  next 25 years.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Elena Giannakopoulou, senior energy economist on the NEO 2016  project, added: &ldquo;One conclusion that may surprise is that our forecast  shows no golden age for gas, except in North America. As a global  generation source, gas will be overtaken by renewables in 2027. It will  be 2037 before renewables overtake coal.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for coal is crucial for international ambitions on  climate. The Paris conference last December saw 196 nations agree limit  global warming to &ldquo;well below&rdquo; two degrees Centigrade, and to aim to  reach &ldquo;global peaking of emissions as soon as possible&rdquo;. NEO 2016  indicates that, despite the global move towards renewables, power sector  emissions will not peak for another 11 years.<\/p>\n<p>NEO 2016 is based on a combination of the project pipeline in each  country, current policies, plus modelled paths for future electricity  demand, power system dynamics and technology costs. It does not assume  any further policy measures post-2020, to speed up decarbonisation. Some  65 specialist analysts worked on the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>An executive summary of NEO 2016 can be downloaded by the media from the micro-site on <a href=\"http:\/\/about.bnef.com\/newenergyoutlook\">this link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-images\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"349\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/BNEF_EnergyOutlook2016_01.jpg\" class=\"alignleft\" alt=\"Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO 2016 | Annual electricity output by the major generating technologies, 2016-40, thousand TWh\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/BNEF_EnergyOutlook2016_01.jpg 770w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/BNEF_EnergyOutlook2016_01-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/BNEF_EnergyOutlook2016_01-768x419.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/div>\n<h5 class=\"green\">Source<\/h5>\n<p><a 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