{"id":6736,"date":"2019-09-13T00:47:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-12T22:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/science\/gloomy-forecast-for-the-aletsch-glacier.html"},"modified":"2019-09-13T00:47:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-12T22:47:00","slug":"gloomy-forecast-for-the-aletsch-glacier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/gloomy-forecast-for-the-aletsch-glacier\/","title":{"rendered":"Gloomy forecast for the Aletsch Glacier"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The largest glacier in the Alps is visibly suffering the effects of  global warming. ETH researchers have now calculated how much of the  Aletsch Glacier will still be visible by the end of the century. In the  worst-case scenario, a couple patches of ice will be all that&rsquo;s left.<\/p>\n<p> <!--more--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"textimage basecomponent\">Every year, it attracts thousands of visitors from around the  world: as the largest ice flow in the Alps, the Great Aletsch Glacier  is a major tourism draw in the Swiss region of Upper Valais, second only  to the Matterhorn. In the summer, its meltwater plays a key role in  providing sufficient water to the dry Rhone valley.<\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage basecomponent\">\n<div class=\"textimage \">\n<p>Yet as the climate becomes ever warmer, the massive glacier is  suffering just as much as the Matterhorn, which is beginning to crumble.  The Aletsch Glacier&rsquo;s tongue has receded by about one kilometre since  the year 2000, and scientists predict this trend will continue over the  coming years. But how will things look for the Great Aletsch Glacier by  the end of the century? How much of it will still be visible from, say,  the nearby Eggishorn or the Jungfraujoch?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/J75n3FCdpuY\" height=\"360\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div class=\"textimage basecomponent\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"textimage \">\n<p><strong>A precise glacier model<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If things go badly, not much. This is the conclusion reached by  Guillaume Jouvet and Matthias Huss from the research group of Martin  Funk at the Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW) at  ETH Zurich. In a detailed simulation, the two researchers have tested  how the Aletsch Glacier will change over the coming years. They applied a  3D glacier model that allows them to map the dynamics of an individual  glacier in detail. &ldquo;The Aletsch Glacier&rsquo;s ice movements are particularly  complex: three massive ice flows coming down from the mountaintops  converge at Konkordiaplatz, and then continue on together into the  valley,&rdquo; Huss explains.<\/p>\n<p>He collaborated on a similar simulation 10 years ago with Jouvet, who  at the time was working at EPFL. Now the two researchers have teamed up  again to assess the future of the Aletsch Glacier using the new  regional climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018) that were introduced  last autumn. They focused on three scenarios that take widely different  starting points regarding the concentration of CO<sub>2<\/sub> in the atmosphere and thus also assume different levels of global warming.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The best case: 50 percent loss<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Regarding glacier tourism in Valais, the best-case scenario would be  if global warming could be limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius, as  stipulated in the Paris Agreement. For that to happen, however,  greenhouse gas emissions have to be massively reduced around the world,  and soon, so that the climate can be stabilised from about 2040. &ldquo;Even  in this case, we have to assume that the Aletsch Glacier will keep  retreating until the end of the century,&rdquo; Jouvet says, continuing,  &ldquo;which means both ice volume and length will be reduced by more than  half of what they are today.&rdquo; Large glaciers are very slow to react to  changes in climate, and so even if the global climate does stabilise  relatively quickly, the Aletsch Glacier will continue to retreat.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/f3VBw58YaZk\" height=\"360\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage \"><\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage \"><\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage \"><\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage \"><\/div>\n<div> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"textimage basecomponent\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"textimage \">\n<p><strong>A glacier out of equilibrium<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The situation is much more critical if the global community does not  pull together quickly to take effective measures against global warming.  Assuming an unfavourable (but unfortunately fully realistic) scenario,  in which Switzerland&rsquo;s climate warms up by the end of the century to 4  to 8 degrees hotter than the 1960&ndash;1990 reference period, in 2100 all  that will remain of what was once the largest glacier in the Alps will  be a couple of measly patches of ice. &ldquo;And Konkordiaplatz, which is  directly below Jungfraujoch and still covered in about 800 metres of  ice, will be completely ice-free,&rdquo; Jouvet adds.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, it is interesting to see how much global warming has  already impacted the glacier to date: even in a theoretical scenario in  which the climate remains the same as it has for the past 30 years, the  glacier&rsquo;s ice volume will still decrease by more than a third by the  end of the century. And if the climate remains as it has for the past 10  years, as much as half the ice volume will be lost. &ldquo;These numbers  confirm that the glacier is no longer in equilibrium with the climate,&rdquo;  Huss explains.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"greybox basecomponent\">\n<div class=\"text-box\">\n<div class=\"parsys basecomponent\">\n<div class=\"parsys basecomponent contains-textimage\">\n<div class=\"textimage basecomponent\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"textimage \">\n<ul>\n<li>Jouvet G, Huss M: Future retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier. Journal of Glaciology, 2019, Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 September 2019, doi: <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/jog.2019.52\">10.1017\/jog.2019.52<span class=\"icon extern\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h5 class=\"green\">Source<\/h5>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ethz.ch\/en\/news-and-events\/eth-news\/news\/2019\/09\/aletschglacier.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ETH Z&uuml;rich 2019<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-flex-start shariff-widget-align-flex-start\"><div class=\"ShariffHeadline\">Diese Meldung teilen<\/div><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8;border-radius:1%\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sonnenseite.com%2Fen%2Fscience%2Fgloomy-forecast-for-the-aletsch-glacier%2F\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\";border-radius:1%; 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ETH researchers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gloomy forecast for the Aletsch Glacier - Sonnenseite - \u00d6kologische Kommunikation mit Franz Alt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The largest glacier in the Alps is visibly suffering the effects of global warming. 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