{"id":67888,"date":"2021-02-06T02:55:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-06T01:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=67888"},"modified":"2021-02-05T08:55:53","modified_gmt":"2021-02-05T07:55:53","slug":"severe-flood-threat-caused-by-climate-change-landmark-oxford-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/environment\/severe-flood-threat-caused-by-climate-change-landmark-oxford-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Severe flood threat caused by climate change \u2013 landmark Oxford study"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Severe flood threat caused by climate change \u2013 landmark Oxford study<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time, researchers have proved human-caused global warming is directly responsible for creating a \u2018critical threat\u2019 of a devastating outburst flood – putting a city of some 120,000 people in the path of potential floodwaters, according to\u00a0new research<\/a>\u00a0from the University of Oxford and the University of Washington, published today [4 Feb] in\u00a0Nature Geoscience<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the planet warms, retreating glaciers contribute to the formation of unstable lakes, prone to hazardous outburst floods. Today\u2019s study provides a vital missing piece of evidence for a ground-breaking lawsuit<\/a> seeking compensation from an energy company, RWE, for climate change impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This new research establishes a \u2018full set\u2019 of links from human-made greenhouse-gas emissions to the substantial risk of a dangerous outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha, high in the Peruvian Andes. This flood threatens to inundate the city of Huaraz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rupert Stuart-Smith<\/a>, lead author of the study says, \u2018We found that human influence on climate \u2013 through greenhouse gas emissions \u2013 is responsible for virtually all of the warming that has been observed in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The study shows that warming has caused the retreat of the Palcaraju glacier which, in turn, has increased the flood risk. Crucially, this establishes a direct link between emissions and the need to implement protective measures now, as well as any damages caused by flooding in future.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the study, \u2018The magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105%…of the observed 1\u00b0C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers is one of the most prominent impacts of climate change in public discourse and an established consequence of anthropogenic climate change, with Andean glaciers among the fastest retreating.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professor Gerard Roe<\/a>, study author and researcher at the University of Washington says, \u2018The scientific challenge was to provide the clearest and cleanest assessment of the physical linkages between climate change and the changing flood hazard.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Around the world, the retreat of mountain glaciers is one of the clearest indicators of climate change,\u2019 according to Professor Roe. \u2018Outburst floods threaten communities in many mountainous regions, but this risk is particularly severe in Huaraz, as well as elsewhere in the Andes and in countries such as Nepal and Bhutan, where vulnerable populations live in the path of the potential floodwaters.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study provides key new evidence for Lliuya v. RWE,<\/em> a lawsuit in the German courts. Sa\u00fal Luciano Lliuya, a farmer from Huaraz, is suing RWE, Germany\u2019s largest electricity producer, for the costs of preventing harms which would result from an outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha. The study\u2019s establishment of a clear, linear causal chain between greenhouse gas emissions and severe outburst flood risk could help resolve critical outstanding questions in the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professor Thom Wetzer<\/a>, Founding Director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, says, \u2018A number of new lawsuits are attempting to hold high-emission companies responsible for the costs of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Such claims require rigorous scientific evidence quantifying the links between emissions and impacts \u2013 as has been provided in this study. It is now up to litigators to translate the science into high-impact legal arguments. Whether or not this particular case proceeds, it shows there is huge potential to leverage the power of the law to hold private companies liable for climate-change related impacts.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In technical terms, the study took a three-step approach to evaluate the link between greenhouse gas emissions and the flood hazard:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n