{"id":69900,"date":"2021-04-04T02:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-04T00:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=69900"},"modified":"2021-04-03T10:12:19","modified_gmt":"2021-04-03T08:12:19","slug":"climate-change-significantly-increases-population-displacement-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/environment\/climate-change-significantly-increases-population-displacement-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change significantly increases population displacement risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The risk of people being forced from their homes by flooding increases by half for each additional degree of global warming, as an international research team led by the Weather and Climate Risks Group at ETH Zurich demonstrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every year, millions of people around the world are displaced from their homes due to severe weather caused by climate change. According to the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, 10.3 million people were displaced as a result of climate-\u200brelated events in the last six months alone \u2013 four times the number displaced by war and conflict in the same period. One of the main causes of displacement is flooding. A recent example is the situation in eastern Australia, where tens of thousands of people are having to flee their homes to seek safety from this hundred-\u200byear flood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An international research team led by the Weather and Climate Risks Group at ETH Zurich has just published a new study aimed at providing a better understanding of future displacement risks due to flooding from rivers overflowing their banks. Their study also evaluates the influence of climate change as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors on these risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Population growth greatly increases risk<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Using a variety of climate, hydrology and population distribution models, the researchers show that if the population remains stable at its current level, the risk of flood-\u200brelated displacement increases by more than 50 percent (relative to 2010 levels) for each degree of global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the world\u2019s population is growing. Even if this growth continues towards a more sustainable path, the risk of displacement will still increase significantly: assuming that the world meets the Paris Agreement\u2019s goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2\u00b0 Celsius, the globally averaged risk is projected to rise by up to 110 percent by the end of this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, under \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d climate-\u200bchange conditions and if the gap between rich and poor continues to widen, the risk is projected to increase even more dramatically. For this scenario, the researchers calculated that the risk of displacement due to flooding would be up to 350 percent higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rapid action needed<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

According to the study\u2019s authors, it is not yet too late to address and manage the risk of flood displacement through spatial and urban planning measures and protective infrastructure such as dams. \u201cOur findings highlight the need for rapid action on both climate mitigation and adaptation agendas in order to reduce future risks, especially to vulnerable populations,\u201d says Pui Man Kam, lead author of the study and doctoral student in ETH Professor David N. Bresch\u2019s group. \u201cFloods often affect the most socio-\u200beconomically vulnerable groups, who tend to live in more hazard-\u200bprone areas,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To conduct their study, the researchers used a global climate-\u200b, hydrology-\u200b and inundation-\u200bmodelling chain to quantify the effect of global warming on displacement risk for both current and projected future population distributions. The study has just been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause floods are a major driver of displacement and due to the fact that they are influenced by climate change, it is imperative that we have a better understanding of how the risks are changing,\u201d Kam says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n