{"id":72064,"date":"2021-06-15T08:52:46","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T06:52:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=72064"},"modified":"2021-06-15T11:18:02","modified_gmt":"2021-06-15T09:18:02","slug":"climate-protection-deep-decarbonization-by-2050-currently-not-plausible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/climate-protection-deep-decarbonization-by-2050-currently-not-plausible\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Protection: Deep Decarbonization by 2050 Currently Not Plausible"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Hamburg-based Cluster of Excellence \u201cClimate, Climatic Change, and Society\u201d (CLICCS) publishes a new, essential study on climate futures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study represents the first systematic attempt to investigate whether a climate future with net-zero carbon emissions is not only possible but also plausible. The authors examine plausibility from a technical-economic perspective, but also with regard to the societal changes necessary for such a future. They conclude that deep decarbonization by 2050 is currently not plausible \u2013 the current efforts to bring about societal transformation need to be far more ambitious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Union is now increasing the ambition of its climate goals, and the German Federal Constitutional Court has recently committed Germany to implementing more ambitious climate action. So, are we already on the path to a climate-neutral future? \u201cWhich climate futures are plausible is not only a physical question, it is at present especially a social one,\u201d says CLICCS Speaker Prof. Detlef Stammer from Universit\u00e4t Hamburg. \u201cIn the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook we investigate the transformative power of social processes and have developed a completely new method for doing so. We\u2019ll then combine the outcomes with findings from the natural sciences, allowing us to narrow down, step by step, what\u2019s plausible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key factors being explored, also referred to as social drivers, include: United Nations\u2019 climate policy, national climate legislation, protests and social movements, divesting from fossil fuel industries, and media coverage. Crucially, none of the ten social drivers assessed in the Outlook appear to have enough momentum to reach deep decarbonization by 2050. Yet reaching deep decarbonization by mid-century is vital if the climate targets laid out in the Paris Agreement are to be achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six of the drivers support the net-zero goal<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

However, six of the drivers could foster a gradual decarbonization: \u201cThe majority of the factors we evaluated certainly support the net-zero goal. For example, the factor \u2018climate policy\u2019 has been strengthened by the USA\u2019s reentry into the Paris Agreement,\u201d explains Prof. Anita Engels, a social scientist at Universit\u00e4t Hamburg and CLICCS Co-Chair. \u201cAt the same time, the extent to which climate protests can continue to put pressure on governments after COVID-19 will be an important aspect.\u201d Another crucial driver is the divestment from fossil fuels. However, companies often operate under long investment cycles, which means the effects will only become apparent down the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors concluded that, at the moment, neither high-emissions nor low-emissions scenarios are plausible: \u201cStudies show that very high CO2<\/sub> emissions can produce tremendous economic costs. What\u2019s more: global coal reserves are finite, and clean energy is becoming more affordable. As such, governments and companies alike will be forced to change course,\u201d says CLICCS Co-Chair Prof. Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. However, we\u2019re still lacking the technologies needed for the rapid and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere \u2013 an essential prerequisite for cutting emissions to net zero. The authors further translated these findings about plausible emissions into an assessment of long-term warming, by incorporating the latest research on how CO2<\/sub> emissions affect the climate: \u201cOur results imply that global surface warming of less than 1.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 is not plausible, but nor is a rise of more than 4.9 degrees.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook fills an important gap<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"CLICCS\/
\u00a9 CLICCS\/ Universit\u00e4t Hamburg | Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Other studies\u2013like the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C and the United Nations Emissions Gap Report\u2013also assess which pathways might achieve the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement, but they focus more on the technical and practical requirements. \u201cThe Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook analyzes which social drivers can enable and motivate the change. We\u2019re using this new analytical framework to systematically assess the available data with regard to the necessary decarbonization,\u201d said Prof. Engels. The study\u2019s analytical approach is unique: \u201cIn the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, we\u2019re not looking into what would be necessary, feasible or desirable. We\u2019re analyzing which climate futures are plausible \u2013 and which ones aren\u2019t,\u201d says Prof. Marotzke, who was also one of the key contributors to the upcoming IPCC report. \u201cThe social challenge is far greater than many people can imagine,\u201d concludes Prof. Stammer. \u201cAs such, our findings represent a wake-up call for the political community and society at large.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n