{"id":83498,"date":"2022-07-02T09:39:52","date_gmt":"2022-07-02T07:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=83498"},"modified":"2022-07-02T09:39:53","modified_gmt":"2022-07-02T07:39:53","slug":"melting-arctic-ice-could-transform-international-shipping-routes-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/melting-arctic-ice-could-transform-international-shipping-routes-study-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"Melting Arctic ice could transform international shipping routes, study finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Melting ice in the Arctic Ocean could yield new trade routes in international waters, reducing the shipping industry\u2019s carbon footprint and weakening Russia\u2019s control over trade routes through the Arctic, a study found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With climate change rapidly warming the world\u2019s oceans, the future of the Arctic Ocean looks grim. Climate models show that parts of the Arctic that were once covered in ice year-round are warming so quickly that they will be reliably ice-free for months on end in as few as two decades. The Arctic\u2019s changing climate will endanger countless species that thrive in sub-zero temperatures, scientists say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another critical consequence of melting ice in the Arctic? The potential for shorter, more eco-friendly maritime trade routes that bypass the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new study, a pair of climate scientists at Brown University worked with a legal scholar at the University of Maine School of Law to predict how Arctic Ocean ice melt could affect the regulation of shipping routes over the next few decades. They projected that by 2065, the Arctic\u2019s navigability will increase so greatly that it could yield new trade routes in international waters \u2014 not only reducing the shipping industry\u2019s carbon footprint but also weakening Russia\u2019s control over trade in the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study was published on Monday, June 20<\/a>, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no scenario in which melting ice in the Arctic is good news,\u201d said Amanda Lynch, the study\u2019s lead author and a professor of Earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Brown. \u201cBut the unfortunate reality is that the ice is already retreating, these routes are opening up, and we need to start thinking critically about the legal, environmental and geopolitical implications.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lynch, who has studied climate change in the Arctic for nearly 30 years, said that as a first step, she worked with Xueke Li, a postdoctoral research associate at the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society<\/a>, to model four navigation scenarios based on four likely outcomes of global actions to halt climate change in the coming years. Their projections showed that unless global leaders successfully constrain warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 43 years, climate change will likely open up several new routes through international waters by the middle of this century.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\u00a9 brown.edu | One critical consequence of melting ice in the Arctic: the potential for shorter, more eco-friendly maritime trade routes that bypass the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route, shown here in green.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

According to Charles Norchi \u2014 director of the Center for Oceans and Coastal Law<\/a> at Maine Law, a visiting scholar at Brown\u2019s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs<\/a>, and one of the study\u2019s co-authors \u2014 those changes could have major implications for world trade and global politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norchi explained that since 1982, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has given Arctic coastal states enhanced authority over primary shipping routes. Article 234 of the convention states that in the name of \u201cthe prevention, reduction and control of marine pollution from vessels,\u201d countries whose coastlines are near Arctic shipping routes have the ability to regulate the route\u2019s maritime traffic, so long as the area remains ice-covered for the majority of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norchi said that for decades, Russia has used Article 234 for its own economic and geopolitical interests. One Russian law requires all vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route to be piloted by Russians. The country also requires that passing vessels pay tolls and provide advance notice of their plans to use the route. The heavy regulation is one among many reasons why major shipping companies often bypass the route\u2019s heavy regulations and high costs and instead use the Suez and Panama canals \u2014 longer, but cheaper and easier, trade routes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as the ice near Russia\u2019s northern coast begins to melt, Norchi said, so will the country\u2019s grip on shipping through the Arctic Ocean. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Russians will, I’m sure, continue to invoke Article 234, which they will attempt to back up with their might,\u201d Norchi said. \u201cBut they will be challenged by the international community, because Article 234 will cease to be applicable if there’s no ice covered-area for most of the year. Not only that, but with melting ice, shipping will move out of Russian territorial waters and into international waters. If that happens, Russia can\u2019t do much, because the outcome is driven by climate change and shipping economics.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Lynch, previous studies have shown that Arctic routes are 30% to 50% shorter than the Suez Canal and Panama Canal routes, with transit time reduced by an estimated 14 to 20 days. That means that if international Arctic waters warm enough to open up new pathways, shipping companies could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by about 24% while also saving money and time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese potential new Arctic routes are a useful thing to consider when you recall the moment when the Ever Given ship was stranded in the Suez Canal, blocking an important shipping route for several weeks,\u201d Lynch said. \u201cDiversifying trade routes \u2014 especially considering new routes that can\u2019t be blocked, because they\u2019re not canals \u2014 gives the global shipping infrastructure a lot more resiliency.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s better to ask questions about the future of shipping now, Lynch said, rather than later, given how long it can take to establish international laws. (For context, she said, it took 10 years for world governments to negotiate the Convention on the Law of the Sea.) Lynch hopes that kicking off the conversation on the Arctic\u2019s trade future with well-researched scholarship might help world leaders make informed decisions about protecting the Earth\u2019s climate from future harm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFlagging these coming changes now could help prevent them from emerging as a crisis that has to be resolved rapidly, which almost never turns out well,\u201d Lynch said. \u201cTo actually craft international agreements with some forethought and deliberation is certainly a better way to go.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n