{"id":88167,"date":"2023-01-14T10:26:16","date_gmt":"2023-01-14T09:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=88167"},"modified":"2023-01-14T10:26:17","modified_gmt":"2023-01-14T09:26:17","slug":"new-study-in-science-puts-a-number-on-what-exxon-knew-decades-ago-about-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/new-study-in-science-puts-a-number-on-what-exxon-knew-decades-ago-about-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"New study in ‘Science’ puts a number on what Exxon knew decades ago about climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Climate projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2003 were accurate and skillful in predicting subsequent global warming and contradicted the company\u2019s public claims, shows a new study published in the highly renowned research journal ‘Science’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"pik-potsdam.de<\/a>
\u00a9 pik-potsdam.de – Exxon | Summary of all global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists in internal documents and peer-reviewed publications between 1977 and 2003 (gray lines), superimposed on historically observed temperature change (red). Solid gray lines indicate global warming projections modeled by ExxonMobil scientists themselves; dashed gray lines indicate projections internally reproduced by ExxonMobil scientists from third-party sources. Shades of gray scale with model start dates, from earliest (1977: lightest) to latest (2003: darkest). Figure from Supran et al, 2023.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In the first ever systematic assessment of the fossil fuel industry\u2019s climate projections, researchers at Harvard University and the\u00a0Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have\u00a0put a number on what \u2018Exxon knew\u2019 decades ago about climate science: that fossil fuel burning would lead to 0.20 \u00b1 0.04 degrees Celsius of global warming per decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“One Exxon projection rightly predicted in 1977 that fossil fuel use would cause a \u2018carbon dioxide induced super interglacial\u2019,\u201d says Stefan Rahmstorf from PIK, one of the authors who studies ice age cycles. \u201cThat is a warm period not only much warmer than the Holocene but even warmer than the previous warm period before the last Ice Age, the Eemian interglacial 125,000 years ago. We\u2019re well on the way to that now.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statistical analysis of never-previously reported data from the company’s own documents<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The findings, summarized by a single chart displaying every global warming projection reported by Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003, are based on statistical analyses of never-previously reported data buried in the company\u2019s own documents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it has been widely reported that Exxon has known about the threat of global warming since the 1970s, this study is the first quantitative review of the company\u2019s early climate science. Previous research focused on Exxon’s inconsistent internal and external rhetoric on climate change. This report dives into company data revealing that the company knew how much warming would occur with startling accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming consistent with subsequent observations”<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming consistent with subsequent observations,\u201d the report concludes. \u201cTheir projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using established IPCC statistical techniques, the study finds that 63-83% of global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists were consistent with subsequently observed temperatures. Moreover, projections modeled by ExxonMobil scientists had an average \u2018skill score\u2019 of 72 \u00b1 6 %, with the highest scoring 99%. For comparison, NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen\u2019s global warming predictions presented to the U.S. Congress in 1988 had skill scores ranging from 38% to 66%. (When we account for differences between forecast and observed atmospheric CO2<\/sub> levels, the \u2018skill score\u2019 of projections modeled by ExxonMobil scientists was 75 \u00b1 5%, with seven projections scoring 85% or above. Again, for comparison, Hansen\u2019s 1988 projections had corresponding skill scores of 28 to 81%.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study finds that \u201cExxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the \u2018carbon budget\u2019 for holding warming below 2\u00b0C. On each of these points, however, the company\u2019s public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 The study adds weight to ongoing legal and political investigations into ExxonMobil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“ExxonMobil\u2019s own data contradicted its public statements”<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cThese findings corroborate and add quantitative precision,\u201d the authors write, \u201cto assertions by scholars, journalists, lawyers, politicians, and others that ExxonMobil accurately foresaw the threat of human-caused global warming, both prior and parallel to orchestrating lobbying and propaganda campaigns to delay climate action, and refute claims by ExxonMobil Corp and its defenders that these assertions are incorrect.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is the nail-in-the-coffin of ExxonMobil\u2019s\u00a0claims<\/a>\u00a0that it has been falsely accused of climate malfeasance,\u201d commented lead author and Harvard University Research Associate\u00a0Geoffrey Supran (Supran began as an Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Policy at the\u00a0University of Miami\u2019s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science Jan 2023). \u201cOur analysis shows that ExxonMobil\u2019s own data contradicted its public statements, which included exaggerating uncertainties, criticizing climate models, mythologizing global cooling, and feigning ignorance about when \u2014 or if \u2014 human-caused global warming would be measurable, all while staying silent on the threat of stranded fossil fuel assets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n