{"id":88797,"date":"2023-02-02T09:07:27","date_gmt":"2023-02-02T08:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/?p=88797"},"modified":"2023-02-02T09:07:29","modified_gmt":"2023-02-02T08:07:29","slug":"social-change-more-important-than-physical-tipping-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/en\/science\/social-change-more-important-than-physical-tipping-points\/","title":{"rendered":"Social change more important than physical tipping points"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is currently not plausible, as is shown in a new, central study released by Universit\u00e4t Hamburg\u2019s Cluster of Excellence \u201cClimate, Climatic Change, and Society\u201d (CLICCS). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate policy, protests, and the Ukraine crisis: the participating researchers systematically assessed to what extent social changes are already underway \u2013 while also analyzing certain physical processes frequently discussed as tipping points. Their conclusion: social change is essential to meeting the temperature goals set in Paris. But what has been achieved to date is insufficient. Accordingly, climate adaptation will also have to be approached from a new angle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interdisciplinary team of researchers addressed ten important drivers of social change: \u201cActually, when it comes to climate protection, some things have now been set in motion. But if you look at the development of social processes in detail, keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees still isn\u2019t plausible,\u201d says CLICCS Speaker Prof. Anita Engels. According to the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, especially consumption patterns and corporate responses are slowing urgently needed climate protection measures. Other key factors like UN climate policy, legislation, climate protests and divestment from the fossil fuels are supporting efforts to meet the climate goals. As the analysis shows, however, this positive dynamic alone won\u2019t suffice to stay within the 1.5-degree limit. \u201cThe deep decarbonization required is simply progressing too slowly,\u201d says Engels.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\u00a9<\/a>
\u00a9 CLICCS\/Universit\u00e4t Hamburg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In addition, the team assesses certain physical processes that are frequently discussed as tipping points: the loss of the Arctic sea ice and melting ice sheets are serious developments \u2013 as are regional climate changes. But they will have very little influence on the global temperature until 2050. In this regard, a thawing permafrost, weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the loss of the Amazon Forest are more important factors \u2013 albeit only moderately. \u201cThe Fact is: these feared tipping points could drastically change the conditions for life on Earth \u2013 but they\u2019re largely irrelevant for reaching the Paris Agreement temperature goals,\u201d explains CLICCS Co-Speaker Prof. Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study also coveres COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine: economic reconstruction programs have reinforced dependence on fossil fuels, which means the necessary changes are now less plausible than previously assumed. In contrast, whether efforts to safeguard Europe\u2019s power supply and the international community\u2019s attempts to become independent of Russian gas will undermine or accelerate the phasing out of fossil fuels in the long run remains unclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importance of human agency, new approach to adaptation<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The Outlook is currently the only assessment that interlinks social sciences and natural sciences analysis in an integrated study to assess the plausibility of certain climate futures. More than 60 experts have contributed. According to the study, the best hope for shaping a positive climate future lies in the ability of society to make fundamental changes (\u201chuman agency\u201d). In addition, the Outlook reveals a range of conditions for doing so, for instance that transnational initiatives and non-government actors continue to support climate protection, and that protests keep up the pressure on politicians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe question of what is not just theoretically possible, but also plausible, that is, can realistically be expected, offers us new points of departure,\u201d says Anita Engels. \u201cIf we fail to meet the climate goals, adapting to the impacts will become all the more important.\u201d In this regard, the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook introduces a new tool for testing the long-term effects of various measures. They need to do more than provide support once the crisis strikes: \u201cIn order to be equipped for a warmer world, we have to anticipate changes, get the affected parties on board, and take advantage of local knowledge. Instead of just reacting, we need to begin an active transformation here and now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n