The Rise of the Far Right and the Final Struggle of the Fossil Fuel Industry
This essay aims to highlight a connection that has received little attention in public debate: the link between the rise of the far right and the impending decline of the fossil fuel industry. By Stefan Gsänger
Renewable Energy on the Rise
In recent years, the expansion of renewable energy has achieved remarkable success. In the electricity sector, renewables now dominate new installations. The cost of renewable energy has fallen so far that fossil fuels can no longer compete without subsidies – nuclear power even less so. Supply crises and rising prices for oil and gas, along with the spiraling costs of new nuclear projects, are accelerating this trend. Millions of people in Germany and hundreds of millions worldwide have become active participants in the energy transformation, taking control of their own energy supply and often investing their own money. In doing so, they have freed themselves from the highly centralized fossil and nuclear energy industry.
Despite this success, some media outlets create the impression that renewable energy is in retreat and that the energy transformation is in crisis.
An Existential Threat to the Fossil Fuel Industry
The decentralization of energy supply now poses an existential threat to the fossil fuel industry, whose global revenue is estimated at well over $5 trillion. It is therefore to be expected that this transformation will not proceed without resistance from those who stand to lose their revenues and profits. What began as a necessary economic, social, and ecological structural change is increasingly becoming a struggle for power.
Such resistance has been observable in Germany for decades. The traditional, once-monopolistic utility companies have long opposed the energy transformation, seeking to prevent competition and continue operating their fossil (and formerly nuclear) power plants profitably.
Fossil Interests and Political Power
Internationally, the situation is even more apparent. Entire nations, such as Russia or the countries around the Persian Gulf, depend almost existentially on the sale of fossil fuels, which provide a significant portion of their state revenues. The Russian state, in its current form, would likely cease to exist without fossil fuel income and would be unable to continue the wars it has initiated.
In the United States, Donald Trump came to power with the MAGA movement, which has far-right populist to extremist tendencies and is closely tied to the fossil fuel industry. His election campaign received substantial financial support from fossil fuel interests. This is evident in both domestic and foreign policy decisions: The U.S. intervention in Venezuela was primarily aimed at gaining control over the country’s oil reserves, and in the conflict with Iran, oil and gas control plays a decisive role.
The Trump administration withdrew from all major international organizations working on climate protection and the energy transition, even actively threatening those that continue this work. Domestically, it has gone so far as to not only attempt to neutralize and repeal any legislation that appears to obstruct fossil fuels. Billions of dollars have been paid to companies to prevent the construction of wind farms. This is a remarkable new form of political influence that borders on corruption: the state is paying companies to abandon the energy transition.
Trump and MAGA have created a far-right to extremist agenda that includes preserving the old fossil-nuclear energy system as a central component, with influence extending far beyond the U.S. Rational arguments play a minor role here; the focus is on the economic interests of a few powerful actors.
The Far Right Against Rational Discourse
Parallel to this, large parts of the world are currently experiencing a surge in far-right populist and extremist forces. This has a noticeable impact on public debates, particularly around energy. Rational arguments – such as cost or climate change – are being sidelined, in part by discrediting serious journalism and science. Despite the facts, populists and extremists use high fossil energy prices to stir sentiment against the energy transformation.
This connection has recently become evident in Germany through the performance of the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) in Saxony-Anhalt, where it nearly secured an absolute majority in parliament. Together with the populist BSW (formerly known as Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), there is even an absolute majority. The AfD had campaigned on stopping the energy transformation, even though this structurally weak federal state stands to benefit significantly from it.
AfD, BSW, and Russian Interests
This is where things get particularly interesting: BSW’s lead candidate, Thomas Schulze, signaled just one day after the election his willingness to support a government led by the AfD. In an interview with Deutschlandfunk, he named the resumption of gas deliveries from Russia as the first possible joint project – despite economic, ecological, and security policy reasoning to the contrary.
Both the AfD and BSW share a stance that questions the scientifically proven human-made climate change and the resulting necessity of a rapid energy transformation. They also favor Russian gas, thereby supporting the Russian regime, which finances itself primarily through fossil fuel sales – funding, among other things, its illegal war against Ukraine. Over the past years, close ties between these parties and the Russian fossil fuel regime have been documented multiple times.
Equally concerning is that the influence of these international fossil fuel currents can also be found within some established German parties. Some proposals for current political decisions, such as those concerning the Renewable Energy Act (EEG), can barely be explained as being in the national interest.
International Attention for a German Regional Election
Fittingly, Putin had already expressed positive remarks about the expected election outcome in Saxony-Anhalt. Trump and Elon Musk did the same. The political leaders of two of the world’s most powerful states – with significant fossil fuel interests – and the world’s richest man are thus commenting on what would normally be considered a rather insignificant regional election. This shows that the fundamental interests of these individuals, their associated states, or companies are affected by the energy transformation in Germany, whether directly or indirectly. Germany is seen as a pioneer in the energy transformation, even if this role has diminished somewhat in recent times.
Trump’s interest clearly lies in U.S. gas exports to Germany and, above all, in discrediting all forces in Germany and Europe that advocate for a consistent energy tranformation. His political power and a significant portion of the financial backing for his political camp are closely tied to the interests of the fossil fuel industry.
Putin, likewise, has an interest in Germany resuming Russian gas imports. He sees his regime threatened if the world moves away from oil and gas consumption, as this would mean losing essential revenue.
The Fight Against the Energy Transformation Goes Global
Far-right populist and extremist forces in other countries also vehemently oppose renewable energy – even though it would actually serve their national interests. Access to renewables cannot be restricted, and they are not subject to unpredictable price fluctuations. Such primarily nationalist parties, which act against the energy transformation and thus ultimately against their own national interests, now exist in many countries, including Australia, Hungary, the United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Italy, the Czech Republic, and many others.
The connections between these right-wing populists and Putin are, as in Germany, well-documented. In recent times, more and more links to Trump’s camp have also been exposed.
Attacks on Europe
The attacks by Putin, Trump, and their allies on the European Union are also connected to the EU’s clear commitment to the Paris Agreement’s goals and its push for a transformation to renewable energy, aiming for the continent’s energy autonomy. Against this backdrop, Trump’s efforts to pressure the EU into importing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) can also be understood.
The Role of Social Media
It is also evident that new media – primarily social networks – massively amplify support for fossil fuels by spreading false information about renewable energy. There are now systematic studies showing that algorithms are programmed to prioritize posts from far-right groups. Major social networks are controlled by companies or billionaires who have increasingly aligned themselves with Donald Trump’s agenda. Large media conglomerates like Murdoch’s or Springer’s also play an active role in many countries, spreading far-right populist and extremist messages to undermine the energy transformation.
The Final Struggle Over Energy Supply
As described, the shift to renewable energy is being attacked on many levels and at very high costs. Ultimately, however, the transformation to renewables is inevitable – their advantages are too tangible and obvious. They are universally available and cost-effective. The old energy industry wants to continue its business for as long as possible, against all resistance, to extract profits for as long as it can. It is therefore not an exaggeration to state that Germany and the world are already in a final struggle over the future of energy supply. The fossil fuel industry is fighting its impending demise with all possible means. The far right serves as an effective and willing tool in this fight. Thus, the international rise of the far right is also inseparably linked to the impending decline and survival struggle of the fossil fuel industry.
The Duration of the Conflict as an Existential Question
It is impossible to estimate how long this transformation will take in the face of such massive disruption. Given the escalating climate crisis, this does not bode well for living conditions on Earth, as every additional ton of CO₂ emitted intensifies climate change. For the future of humanity, it will be decisive to limit the duration of this conflict as much as possible, because the longer it lasts, the worse the consequences. It is already foreseeable that it is causing immeasurable damage – ecological, economic, and social – including hundreds of thousands of deaths from warfare or the direct effects of climate change.
The Answer: Renewable Energy for the People!
What can and must be the response to the fossil fuel industry’s massive campaign – which often uses far-right groupings to achieve its goals? The answer must be: Put the power of energy supply in the hands of the people! Let them decide for themselves how they want to be supplied with energy. Let them benefit from using their local resources. Those who personally benefit from renewable energy will be less susceptible to disinformation, lies, and political campaigns against the energy transformation.
In this sense, every solar panel, every electric car, every wind turbine, and every heat pump is not only a means of overcoming the fossil fuel crisis and the climate crisis. They are also means of stabilizing and securing our democratic, prosperous societies in the long term – especially against inhumane, far-right developments.
