The electricity mix of the future will be significantly greener – that’s the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris in its annual report World Energy Outlook 2023.
The global share of renewable energies will be just under 50% by 2030. In Germany, this figure is expected to reach 80% by then. From 2025, global CO2 greenhouse gases are expected to fall rather than rise. The IEA therefore expects CO2 emissions to peak in two to three years.
The number of e-cars increases almost tenfold in the current policy scenario compared to today. Photovoltaic systems generate more electricity than all the power plants in the U.S. today. The share of renewables in global electricity generation rises from about 30 percent today to nearly 50 percent – despite rising electricity demand. Sales of heat pumps and other electric heating systems are outpacing fossil fuel burner sales worldwide. Three times as much money is flowing into new offshore wind farms alone as into new coal and gas-fired power plants.
Nevertheless, the current pace of renewable energy expansion is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris targets of global warming of just 1.5 degrees. The world is currently heading for 2.5 to three degrees. In order to reach the 1.5 degree target, the pace of renewable energy expansion would have to be at least tripled.
But this is difficult for several reasons: First, Europe lacks skilled workers. Second: Europe is now dependent on China for solar and wind energy through its own fault. Third, the cost of steel and other raw materials has risen sharply.
In Germany, more than 20,000 heavy transports of wind turbines are stuck in the queue. The approval process for wind turbines in this country takes up to ten years. By 2022, all five major wind turbine manufacturers in the EU have made losses. They are currently running out of steam. And solar turbine manufacturers still have very strong competition from highly subsidized Chinese manufacturers.
By 2050, the North Sea is expected to be the EU’s largest energy supplier via offshore wind farms. If the Paris target is still to be met, it will only be possible with many more e-cars, many more heat pumps, much more green electricity and much more energy efficiency.
We are at a tipping point in favor of renewables. Green power is cheaper than conventional power – an unbeatable economic advantage of ecological energy supply and: solar power is social power.