Climate change is transforming Europe’s electricity system
Research that makes a difference – for an energy infrastructure fit for the future. An energy system that is increasingly based on renewables and electrification is more dependent on the weather.
A research team from the AIT Austrian Institute of Technology and BOKU University has now demonstrated how climate change could affect electricity demand and renewable generation in Europe. The published study provides the open data set SECURES-Energy, which supplies national, hourly electricity demand and generation profiles for the period from 1981 to 2100.
The energy transition must be planned not only to be low-emission, but also to be climate-resilient. “The SECURES-Energy project highlights when and where shifts in electricity generation and demand are occurring across Europe – thereby providing a transparent basis for investment in grids, storage and flexibility”, explains Franziska Schöniger, energy researcher at the AIT Austrian Institute of Technology.
What the data shows
The calculations were carried out for two different climate change scenarios: moderate climate change (corresponding to an RCP 4.5 scenario) and severe climate change (RCP 8.5).
Based on these two models, the following results emerge for future electricity demand:
- Cooling demand in the European countries studied will rise by up to +80 per cent (under moderate climate change) or +149 per cent (under severe climate change) by the middle of the century. By the end of the century, cooling demand will have increased by +129 per cent or +317 per cent.
- Heating demand will fall by −19%/−24% by the middle of the century and by up to −25%/−40% by the end of the century.
The following changes are expected in electricity generation:
- For photovoltaics, onshore wind and run-of-river hydropower, there is no consistent trend across Europe; regional differences and year-on-year fluctuations remain a key factor.
- In the case of offshore wind, however, the analysis points to a decline in annual generation across Europe due to climate change.
- At the same time, the seasonality of hydropower is changing: in Austria, river flows are tending to shift from summer towards winter due to altered rainfall and snowmelt patterns and the increased likelihood of prolonged dry spells, whilst low summer generation is becoming even more pronounced in countries such as France and Spain.
From the European dataset to its application in Austria
The SECURES-Energy project forms part of a wider range of current AIT projects focusing on resilient energy infrastructure. As part of ROBINE-AT, climate impact maps were produced, providing a high-resolution dataset on the potential effects of climate change on Austria’s energy infrastructure.
In addition, regional energy generation and electricity demand profiles for Austria were produced (ROBINE-AT-Energy). DeRisk-E investigates how the electricity system can be designed to be resilient to climatic, geopolitical and other uncertainties. The SECURES-Energy electricity generation and demand profiles, which have now been published, help to assess renewable energy deployment pathways, flexibility requirements and security of supply under changing climate conditions.
Requirements for a climate-resilient energy system
A climate-resilient energy future requires regional differentiation, the consideration of various climate scenarios, and a transparent meteorological data set in suitable formats for energy system modelling. Climate-resilient electricity systems require flexibility options to balance out fluctuations in generation and demand, as well as the systematic incorporation of long-term climatic changes and extreme weather events into strategic planning processes. The current projects at AIT therefore make a key contribution to preparing Austria’s energy system for the risks of climate change and weather-related uncertainties, and to supporting Austrian decision-makers in designing a robust and resilient electricity system.
- Further Information: Paper | SECURES-Energy dataset ROBINE final report
- SECURES-Energy covers almost all European countries and combines ERA5 reanalysis data with two EURO-CORDEX climate scenarios. It models photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind, run-of-river and pumped-storage hydropower for 40 countries, as well as electricity demand for heating, cooling, transport, industry and electrolysis for 29 countries. The authors emphasise that the results depend on the chosen climate models and assumptions. The SECURES project ran from 2020 to 2023, and the ROBINE project from 2023 to 2025. DeRisk-E is running from 2025 to 2027. All projects were funded by the Climate and Energy Fund.
