Urbanization to convert 300,000 km² of prime croplands

“Hotspots of cropland loss tend to be river valleys and deltas, such as the Yangtze River Delta near Shanghai or the Pearl River Delta near Hong Kong. On a regional level, that food production loss cannot always be compensated for. This, in turn, could have an impact on the world food system,” says lead author Bren d’Amour. The study also shows that the land-use conflict between urbanization and food production can differ markedly from one global region to the next. “A lot depends on the urbanization dynamics of the individual countries. In India, for example, the urbanization process is not as fast as in China and smaller in overall scale. This is reflected in our results, which predict significantly lower cropland losses for India.”

For their research, the scientists used spatially explicit urban area expansion projections from Yale University. They then combined these with land-use data from the University of Minnesota and the University of British Columbia on global croplands and crop yields. The MCC study examined the total loss of croplands worldwide. To determine the productivity of that land, the researchers used the aggregated production of the 16 most important food crops, including for example maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat.

Aside from Asia, the rapidly urbanizing regions of Africa will be another global hotspot of loss of cropland. Among these are Nigeria as well as Burundi and Rwanda, already severely affected by hunger and food shortage. For the African population, this challenge is compounded by two factors: the distinct vulnerability of many African countries to the effects of climate change, and the comparatively greater difficulties encountered by the unemployed rural population to gain a foothold in the urban labor markets.

The urbanization in Egypt, too, is particularly pronounced: By 2030, the country could lose about one-third of its cropland due to urbanization. To exacerbate matters, the Nile Delta region around Cairo is likely to be strongly affected by sea level rise. And although comparatively small, this area churns out the majority of the country’s agricultural production.

“Policy-makers at the municipal level are now called on to take action. Their time has come, since urban planning is now part and parcel of world policy,” says Felix Creutzig, head of the MCC Working Group on Land Use, Infrastructure and Transport. “Urban planners can contribute to preventing small farmers from losing their livelihoods. Spatially efficient urbanization could help to retain the existing agricultural system while continuing to provide small farmers with access to the urban food market.”

• Bren d’Amour, Christopher et al. (2016): Future urban expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1615688114
• https://www.eurekalert.org/jrnls/pnas/16-06036.htm